General Election - June 8th

Look baby, don't worry about me being behind. I stand for the right thing. Your manners are clearly visible in your talks and standard... Regarding your previous comment of same-sex relationship, I think your man has spoiled you too much... you have fun baby

Oh I am getting under your skin, aren't I sweetie? Am I making you all hot and bothered baby? Have a refreshing cold shower to dampen your ardour.

By the way honey I am having the best time here

As I said, don't worry about me sunshine...you drink a coconut juice... I am enjoying my train ride back home...Do you smell like fish? By the way if you need job, contact me, I will find a suitable role for you... don't you worry baby

Eh up lads. Does it mean we can have a right old swear feast on t'forum? I thought I read somewhere it was terribly frowned upon.

Do I smell like what? Is that your best chat-up line? You can stick your job, not that you could afford me, you're the last person on the planet I would work for.

I know prostitutes speak language like yours... enough requi

well you said you are not into same-sex, so I will keep this in mind before I find suitable role for a babe like you... plenty of clients I know who will make you a normal human being in few hours

No it does not. That was a short intermission to humour a jackass, we return now to our normal, polite programming.

what you call POLITE honey is actually a bit*hy language...

by the way, you said I can't afford you, tell me what's your rate?

ive been hiding in the lavatory--is it safe to come out yet ?

Best line in the thread so far, well done @bigmac

How about some arrogant Brits who are disgrace to humanity and people laugh at them when they are in Asian countries with their tongue out after getting kicked by English ladies...

Now that one of the trolls has been evicted, we can return to the discussion in hand.

A YouGov Poll for The Times published this morning shows the Tories have a commanding lead:

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Over the next few weeks, watch the Lib Dems. They have now replaced Ukip as the third most popular party
and as they are the only electable party that is pro-EU, expect them to receive support from disgruntled Tory and Labour Remainers. I do expect the Lib Dems to poll particularly well but may not achieve sufficient MPs to become the official opposition. But in truth they will be as the next Parliament will all be about Brexit.

Nicola Sturgeon made a Big Mistake in seeking an alliance with Labour but, to his credit, her suggestion was firmly rebuffed by Jeremy Corbyn who reportedly insisted that the SNP runs a right wing government behind left wing rhetoric and insisted the party had no genuine interest in helping to run the UK as a whole. She might have fared better had she chosen to ally with the Lib Dems although they say they are broadly against the splitting-up of the Union.

The exodus of Labour MPs who have decided not to stand for re-election has risen to 9 with Gisela Stuart, the Brexiter from Birmingham, Fiona Mactaggart and Andy Burnham being the latest to announce. But potentially more damaging for Corbyn is the defection of his close ally Bob Marshall-Andrews the former MP for Medway to the Lib Dems, calling the official opposition a "political basket case". He told The Times "At present there is manifestly a huge vacuum on the centre-left represented in substantial part by the 48 per cent of the electorate who rejected Brexit and the lies on which it was based. To many, including me, there was a forlorn hope that a reformed and radical Labour Party would rise to historic occasion. It has not and shows no real sign of doing so." Whether other current or former Labour MPs join Marshall-Andrews in wearing yellow rosettes remains to be see.

Douglas Carswell's announcement that he too will not be seeking re-election, this time as an Independent, and will be voting for his old party, the Conservatives, was a fitting leaving present to Ukip. Arron Banks, Ukip's multi-millionaire backer, had earlier decided to run against Carswell even though he admitted he knew absolutely nothing about the place. He may not now run but regardless of whether he does or not, Clacton will be a Tory gain.

I was surprised by Carswell pulling out, I thought he would have stood as he is quite popular with the electorate of Clacton.

That good old boy will be making his mind up over the next couple of days whether or not to stand at Thanet again, from a personal point of view I would very much like to see him in the thick of it just to be our watchman over Brexit.

I agree that with Carswell backing the Tory candidate Clacton will go Tory.

The SNP cannot easily ally with the LibDems as we are a Unionist party and - more pertinent - we are in contention for some of our traditional seats in the Highlands and Islands.

Here's a puzzle for we LibDems - the most winnable seat on our target list is Cambridge, held by Labour with a wafer thin majority, but the sitting MP defied the Labour Whip and voted against Article 50.

In my local constituency we have picked up several former Tories, and they are most welcome as they are experienced local activists, but we have only gained a couple from Labour.

The work-in-progress spreadsheet attached to this article is quite interesting. It is safe to read even if you are a Tory.

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/how-can-you-vote-to-stop-the-tories-1-4980541

With Corbyn snubbing Sturgeon and there being little hope of the Lib Dems overlooking their Unionism and joining with the SNP, it seems that no matter which (other) party you support, the SNP will be your foe. She really needs to spend more time on the day job and rather less threatening the English with independence. Health and education in Scotland both need urgent attention and both are devolved to the Scottish government: Sturgeon has no excuse for allowing them to decline. And as for Police Scotland ....

Andrew, if your party can not take Cambridge and clean-up in London and some of the seats in the south and southwest, then do expect a Tory majority of 150 or more. This election could shape-up to be a bit like 1997 but with a very significant difference: there will be no effective opposition. You have a window of opportunity as neither Labour nor Tories have finalised their candidates lists and there are a number of constituencies without either a Labour or Tory candidate.

Labour has been fielding its "big brains" before the media. Dawn Butler told Radio 4 listeners: "This election is Theresa May trying to rig democracy in our country" (whaaaat??!!). She said this even though she voted for the General Election yesterday! Meanwhile a London Momentum group dreamed-up the following Cunning Plan: "The odds are against Labour, but if enough of us bet a tenner on Labour to get the most seats or Corbyn to be the next PM, the odds will shorten and the narrative will begin to change."

It appears that the bookies have shortened the odds on a Tory overall majority, they're at 1/14. A Hung Parliament is at 11/2, labour on 25/1, 100/1 for the Lib Dems, Ukip is on 500/1 and if you fancy a punt on the Greens, you'll get 1000/1 - great odds but little chance of a payout.

Mark, I am very confident that we will regain Cambridge; I was posing the question in terms of "votes against Brexit", and asking myself whether, given that we are fairly unlikely to win in Suffolk Coastal, I should choose to canvass for us in Cambridge or in Colchester. Meanwhile I shall be doing my bit for our sitting LibDem County Councillor on May 4th.

As a discussion point, do you agree that, in England and Wales, 2010 voting patterns may be a better guide than 2015 ones?

Rob - no, I didn't. Good point about the students but very often they are on the electoral roll at home. I was and I know my son is as I have his proxy!

Heres' something that cheered me up:

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429

You raise an interesting question and you may have a point. On the other hand you may not because I can not remember any instance where the main opposition party was lagging so far behind in the polls and for Labour the only way is down. 12 of its MPs have now jumped ship, almost all of them moderates and you just know they will be replaced by hard-left Corbynistas who'll probably lose their deposits. I may be wrong, or absent-minded, but I don't think there is a precedent for the present situation.

Thing is, would the Lib Dems be satisfied if they won sufficient seats to be taken seriously as an opposition knowing that whilst they could hold the government to account, they'd be unable to stop Brexit? I fear not but I hope I am wrong.

1983?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1983

Remember that our policy is not to "stop Brexit"; our policy is to hold a second referendum once the terms on which we will leave the EU (or not, depending on the outcome) are known.

We would certainly not be satisfied without a second referendum.

Meanwhile, this is our target list - this is crude data and the actual targets will have been selected from this list on the basis of additional local information - for example Vauxhall where the sitting MP, Kate Hoey, is a chum of Nigel Farage whilst her consituency voted 79% Remain, is bound to be higher on the list than the crude figures indicate.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...with-nigel-farage_uk_57ee5bcce4b00e5804f111bf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vauxhall_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

I am more likely to spend some holiday helping out in Colchester (5.74% swing needed) than in Cambridge (0.58% swing needed) - I know both places having gone to school in one and to university in the other, but my other options would be Norwich South (12.8% needed) or stay at home in Suffolk Coastal (21.66% needed, but I loathe Therese Coffey MP!)