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After Nepal...

Discussion in 'Warnings and Dangers' started by Anon220806, May 19, 2015.

  1. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    Last edited: May 19, 2015
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  2. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    It has been running through my mind too, I mean I know it is thousands of miles from Nepal but the area is a massive fault zone and it will go eventually :(
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  3. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    The two are not entirely mutually exclusive. However, significantly, the Nepal example is a lesson to be learned. A parallel example in terms of pent up tectonic forces, intensity of quake and damage potential.

    I can see why the Senate should be thinking about it.
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  4. Jim
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    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    Will those skyscrapers hold up to a 7.8 quake? Wouldn't like to find out myself
  5. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    This will cause some panic in the Philippines though as many will take this as a prediction that something will happen soon, when we all know these things can't be predicted that accurately.

    On the flip side if nothing happens soon then they could fall back into complacency.

    All that reclaimed land in the bay will be prone to liquefaction, I've read studies that have been going on about this for years and years trying to change construction and land reclamation policy over there.
  6. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    I doubt that they are built to Japanese standards, one reason I would probably never buy a tower block condo unit over there.

    I think they grossly underestimate the possible scale of a quake and the damage and cost in lives, many of the new high rise properties being built near Mall of Asia are on reclaimed land who knows what kind of foundations they put in place?
  7. Anon04576
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    Anon04576 Well-Known Member

    Humans have an inability or plainly refuse to learn from past mistakes. You mention liquefaction in land reclamation. It has happened before, it will happen again.
  8. Jim
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    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    Nature will have her own way in the end, she always have done. Humans have been on this planet for a very short time. How long can we keep abusing this planet before nature bits our arse.
  9. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    Last edited: May 19, 2015
  10. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

  11. subseastu
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    subseastu I'm Bruce Wayne Lifetime Member

    I experienced the quake in subic bay late last year / earlier this year. The epicenter was about 2 miles from us and was about a 5.6 I think. Very strange, scary feeling in our two storey house at 2 am. The house stood up to it but it was built by a foreigner so possibly built to a better standard than normal. I know I wouldn't like to be 33 floors up when one hits
  12. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    Where do the senate convene, on that map? If its in the yellow area they will perhaps be a tad concerned.
  13. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    Think I remember reading that the last time the The West Valley Fault moved was in the mid 1600`s (1656 I think).. The average time it has moved historically is every 400 years.. Of course this means that the experts are a bit previous with this warning given that they have absolutely no clue when it will shake again.. If the average is anything to go by then its another 40 odd years give or take.
    If it shakes next month they will be saying they told us so.."You were warned"!! If 5 years go by and still nothing,they will say "the risk is increasing".. If 100 years go by then nobody would have remembered what they said!
    These guys have a better job than the weather men.. Money for old rope IMO.
  14. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    It is like predicting the weather and as difficult for all the reasons Oss has pointed out before, regarding weather prediction.. What they do know is that the driving energy is stored at the moment and could be triggered at anytime, like a cocked bow and arrow. Dont cough or sneeze as you go ....

    The 400 years is with a big plus and a big minus each way...

    There is a tremendous amount of pent up energy in that faultline just now, gathered over approximately 400 years. Only friction across the faultline is preventing the quake from happening. Give it a hard kick and it will go.. Imagine 400 years of potential at x centimetres per year. Thats a lot of centimetres of give in one go. Then imagine that distance of displacement and how it would affect the buildings along the faultline axis...

    Where x is likely to be several.

    This fault has moved in the past 1,400 years four times with the average interval of 400 to 600 years. The last earthquake that can be related to this happened in 1658, which is 357 years ago. This is very close to the limit of 400 years. Please note that active faults don’t really follow exact averages; it can go earlier or later…It is possible that the movement of this fault can happen in our lifetime,” he said on Monday.

    Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/692072...alley-faultline-in-metro-manila#ixzz3agcE1CoW
    Last edited: May 20, 2015
  15. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

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  16. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

  17. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    If the "experts" at Philvolvics cannot predict a certain earthquake within even a 20 year + or - they should stop creating panic in Manila ,get proper jobs and actually produce something useful instead.
    Of course they will not as its Money for old rope and a great way to cheat taxpayers!
    Ive read somewhere that there is a container truck on steroids that bounces around at approx 8.0 on the Richter scale running around Manila..They invite the people inside so that they can get a preview of what the upcoming earthquake will feel like!!
    I wonder how much they charge? Lol.
  18. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    They are probably doing the best that they can within their brief. But the point is that they are telling people that it is likely to happen in the not too distant future. If those that choose to stay in the danger zone have a choice not to or those that choose to move there do so then it is their own lookout if they are caught up in a disaster, they do so at their own risk.

    But, you are probably right. Is it necessary for those that need to know, to have someone from Phivolcs warn them of impending danger on a colossal scale? Probably not. But it does help raise awareness for those that choose to reduce the likelihood of being caught up in such a disaster. And its good to see some action going ahead like the example of the school in the above posting.
    Last edited: May 28, 2015
  19. Bootsonground
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    Bootsonground Guest

    So its a good idea to scare the **** out of a couple of million poor families that live in shacks and **** holes that they could die anytime soon and its their "own lookout"?
    Sounds like a recipe for a riot!!
  20. Anon220806
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    Anon220806 Well-Known Member

    Not at all. No. Those couple of million poor families have no real choice. Same goes for those that choose to live in the Taal vent.

    Not an easy task for the governing bodies. But when it does happen, which it will and nothing has been done, I am sure there will be a lot of anger vented then.

    Nepal should be a lesson learned. And one that fuels some positive action among the local governing bodies in Manila to reduce the risk and level of disaster in the future.
    Last edited: May 28, 2015

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