Coronavirus (Covid-19) in Other Countries (not Philippines or UK)

The sources that Worldometer uses are different all over the world, they are a screen scraper so basically they are using published reports on specific sets of web sites and directly reading the data from the screen the page and aggregating that data to publish on their site.

One issue regards Sweden is that currently they only appear to be updating the stats every week or so, that Time article you linked to Mike was damning it is well worth reading all of it.

Worldometer has it at these values yesterday.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I agree with him sometimes, but this time no, there is excess mortality he's wrong.

He mentions SARS 1 as well, and he should not even be talking about that there was no pandemic or epidemic.

Is this seasonal?



I listened to the whole video.

Unless there is cross immunity in relation to other coronaviruses we have to assume zero immunity to SARS-CoV-2 at the start of all this, he says that lockdown has done nothing and that everything you see is the result of seasonality, in that case I would like him to explain the graph above.

In terms of deaths, the interventions in the form of treatments and care are reducing the death side of the curve by about 30 to 40 percent if you get 100 people dying in March today you would get about 72 people dying today.

The Time article that Mike linked to makes it clear that the Swedish numbers could be less than trustworthy.

You know that I mentioned a hint of seasonality in the Philippine data the other day, there is an element of that and it is probably vitamin D related and I would reckon that the appearance of seasonality in some data is likely a result of summer sun and vitamin D at least in part, but it is not the only reason, transmission was reduced by lockdown, the graph above shows that because our graph and the graphs of just about any country that did anything about it don't look anything like the US graph.

Is this seasonal?


It's not related to testing, you need to look at testing vs the ratio of positive results.

I fully understand the relationship of testing to cases, I've posted already about why you can't compare today's cases directly to cases in March because we see a far greater percentage of actual cases now due to much more extensive testing but it is still a fraction of real cases potentially between 10 and 30 percent of real cases that we simply can't see because we can't test that much.

You can't get the case load if there is not a susceptible population and in the US and here there is clearly a susceptible population, Sweden well let's wait a bit longer they clearly still have some amount of susceptible population.

Sweden, "New intensive care cases per day", deaths have not caught up yet, the scale is certainly small but then again it is a sixth the size of the UK.

This is from the site where Worldometer are grabbing their data for Sweden https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

One more thing Sweden has 593 deaths per million we have 702 deaths per million, Germany has 132 deaths per million, so should we not be asking what Germany are getting right?

Sunny state, started late but the initial vectors came in through New York and spread from there.



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