People cant die twice . A great many covid deaths are elderly whether at home, in a home or hospital. So their death cant be counted twice. Also the lockdown possibly prevented numerous driving and accidental deaths.
The point is that deaths are up over the last 5 years up to Sept 5th, the total for the year will add the people who die from that point on, during the last four months of the year we will likely have a lot fewer influenza deaths than in earlier years, a good thing. And I agree lockdown will have had an effect on road deaths, which were running at 1870 in the year to June 2019, but I wonder how the suicide stats compare to previous years and what the effect of delayed medical treatment has been due to lockdown. Not an easy calculation is it.
The average mortality in a year is about 600,000. As i say..if 40,000 of the covid deaths are very elderly..the likely hood is they could have died in the course of the year anyway
Also it seems you are trying to compare the resulting number of deaths after crippling measures were taken to prevent something much worse, as if it is normal. The whole point is that if you let this burn through the entire community, with life as normal all through this, something no other country has done, not even Sweden, the result could have been 600,000 dead in the UK just from covid given worst case scenarios which were based on early numbers out of countries like South Korea, the action taken changed the course. The argument now regards this virus is like the argument after the year 2000 the millennium bug, the world didn't end so it was all a hoax, but that ignored the huge efforts by people in my industry to fix that problem before it happened, it's like no one thinks we did that work. Keep using that kind of logic and one day the luck will run out and climate change is the prime example because that kind of logic is being applied in advance. Even in the USA significant numbers of people have done their best to change their behaviour this last 9 months but a hell of a lot didn't and they have already locked in at the very least 300,000 deaths at this point, you can see cases counts spiking a week after an election where people were queueing in huge numbers and god bless them for risking their lives to vote, both Republicans and Democrats but it clearly is having an effect a week later 144,000 new cases yesterday, what will the deaths be in two to three weeks time in the US. edit: don't imagine that all these deaths were supposed to happen this year but it is not impossible as once you overwhelm hospitals people die at home with no care and the many more who might not have died do in fact die.
Incidentally..the person i wrote about that i know personally..who tested positive and was admitted to hospital with breathing difficulties...is on the mend., but still in hospital..nearly 3 weks now.
I don't think that's the demographic that has died, many of them yes, but it is not that heavily cantered on care homes, unaided well what's the threshold for aid, a lot of people who would have otherwise had a lot of years ahead of them have died.
This is why I posted this. We all have the opportunity to lessen the chances of it happening if the worst happens and we are infected.
Which is why I have been on high dose Vitamin D since March I drew this connection back when uklove's wife got ill which was back in April I think.
Yes she tested positive, uklove reported that his wife was horribly ill for 2 weeks and finally got taken into hospital at a point where she probably had bacterial pneumonia which they fixed with intravenous antibiotics, she had probably defeated the virus by that point but was suffering the down stream consequences. I'll try and find his posts and link to them.
It was earlier than I thought before the March 22nd lockdown, this thread post #232 onwards. http://www.british-filipino.com/index.php?threads/coronavirus-in-the-uk.18220/page-12#post-211094
Why is Brazil's death count so high? They have an abundance of sunshine so they should have lots of Vitamin D?
I haven’t studied Brazil. I suspect diet rather than Vit d deficiency. It is after all multifactorial. But why Britain? Why America? Two countries with such high instances of diabesity.