south korea--total population=51million .......................total covid deaths to yesterday = 126 so thats about point 00025%
That is the case in the reporting from some countries, I am not sure that is the case in the UK, it is however thought to be the recording method used in Italy.
He only leaves home when he finds a new Gf, knocks out another kid then comes running back to mommy..
Ok they are really trying to talk about two numbers in this report, they are attempting to work out two things as best they can. CFR (Case Fatality Rate) - This is how many died of all the people who tested positive for the virus, test 6000 and 600 die then you have a CFR of 10% IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) - This is an attempt to estimate the number who have died as a ratio of all of the cases you think you missed in testing and the actual number who died, so test 6000 guess that 60,000 were infected, 600 die so you think the IFR is 1% A low IFR is what everyone is hoping for but you can't really work that out without having an Antibody test because the antibody test will identify everyone who "had", past tense, the virus, you can't get that number from an antigen test (test for the virus) because you would have to test everyone simultaneously to know who has been infected at that point in time and they don't have the machines or chemicals or test kits to even come close to that in most countries. However South Korea has performed a very large number of tests over 2o0,000 by now probably a lot more, but the subtleties are complex it depends how good the cross section of the population is and how good a cross section of those who are infected you happen to get, but more testing usually give you a better chance of getting an accurate cross section of the infected population, it's like the exit polls at an election the bigger the sample the more accurate your predictions. They use Iceland as an example because it is a small population and they have the highest percentage test coverage of that population but they also caution that Iceland has been good at protecting the vulnerable, they hope that the IFR might be more accurate in Iceland but in reality they don't really know. At the end of the article they make clear the degree of uncertainly in the IFR (remember this is the true picture of the fatality rate) is between 0.3% and 3.6% they are coming up with this number on the basis of a blind assumption that CFR is double the IFR and that might not hold true, it could be more or it could be less. An IFR of 0.3% would put this illness on a scale of about 5 times worse than the annual seasonal influenza, at 3.6% it does not bear thinking about, personally I think it will turn out to be on the high side of about 1% and sadly that is all it takes to wipe out the health services of modern countries like Italy, France, Spain and us. There is also the very important point that many of these people are only being saved by serious amounts of intensive care, if you look at the numbers who have recovered you can clearly see they lag far behind new cases, this implies that these people need a lot of help for a long time, that's where all the pressure on the health service is coming from.
Malcolm it is not about total numbers it never has been, although without control those total numbers will arrive one day, South Korea is just about the only country that got on top of this through extreme testing and tracing and they got this far without the kind of lockdown we have elsewhere because they acted very quickly, same in Singapore. The rest of us sat back complacently and are now paying the price, normal seasonal influenza comes damn close to overwhelming the NHS every year and this thing is much worse than that. edit: for the measles virus herd immunity requires 90% to 95% of the population to be vaccinated, this SARS-Cov-2 virus will probably need about the same numbers for the population as a whole to become immune. That means 90 to 95 percent of the population have to have had the disease because there is no vaccine. On those numbers with the current fatality rate 0.3% to 3.6% of those who get it will die. This is not going away in 2 and a half weeks time this is going to be with us for years until they find a workable vaccine and then are able to manufacture enough vaccine for the population of the whole damn world. An meanwhile we have to hope it hasn't mutated into something worse during that time and maybe something that the vaccine can't stop, viruses can mutate and make a vaccine worthless, influenza does it every year the influenza vaccine is only every partially effective.
heres a copy paste ..makes interesting reading. * WELL PLAYED CHINA....* At first they were too prepared. Three weeks after the start of the roll out of this virus 12,000-bed hospitals were already under construction. And they really built them in two weeks. Awesome. Yesterday they announced that they had stopped the epidemic. They appear in videos celebrating, they announce that they even have a vaccine. How could they create it so quickly without having all the genetic information? Well if you are the owner of the formula it is not difficult at all. Due to the coronavirus, the actions of Western companies in China fell dramatically. when they went down enough they (China) bought them. Now the companies, Created by the USA and Europe in China, with all the technology put in by these exchanges and their capital, they passed into the hands of China, which is now rising with all that technological potential and will be able to set prices at will to sell everything they need to the West. None of this could have happened by chance. China thought who cares that a few old men died? Fewer old-age pensions to pay, And right now the West is financially defeated, in crisis and stunned by the disease. And without knowing what to do. Masterfully diabolic. Could it be the communists? Adding to this, they are now the single largest owners of US treasury with 1.18 trillion holding surpassing Japan. How come Russia & North Korea have Low or Zero incidence of Covid- 19 ? Is it because they are staunch allies of China On the other hand USA / South Korea / United Kingdom / France / Italy / Spain and Asia are severely hit How come Wuhan is suddenly free from the deadly virus? China says that the drastic initial measures that they took were very stern and Wuhan was locked down to contain the spread to other areas Why Beijing was not hit ? Why only Wuhan? It is interesting to ponder upon.. right ? Well ..Wuhan is open for business now Covid - 19 needs to be seen in the backdrop of the arm twisting of China by USA in the trade war America and all the above mentioned countries are devastated financially Soon American economy will collapse as planned by China. China knows it CANNOT defeat America militarily as USA is at present THE MOST POWERFUL country in the world. So use the virus...to cripple the economy and paralyse the nation and its Defense capabilities. Lately President Trump has always been telling of how the GREAT American economy was improving on all fronts and jobs were coming back to the USA The only way to destroy his vision of making AMERICA GREAT AGAIN is to create an ECONOMIC HAVOC. Wuhan's epidemic was a showcase. At the peak of the virus epidemic....China's President Xi Jinping...just wore a simple RM1 facemask to visit those effected areas. As President he should have been covered from head to toe.....but that was not the case. He was already injected to resist any harm from the virus....that means a cure was already in place before the virus was released China's vision is to control the World ECONOMY by buying up stocks now from countries facing the brink of severe ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.....Later China will announce that their Medical Researchers have found a cure to destroy the virus Now China shall OWN the stocks of All Western alliances
People standing at their doors in my street at 8pm clapping for the NHS workers. I think this will continue.
my wife is sat at a table with papers in front of her--trying to patch together a staff rota for the care home. young mum staff are staying home to look after their kids.... ...and this is without any going sick and self isolating..that is all yet to come.
well--lets hope you 2 are right ( can you read each others comments ? ) otherwise we really are in deep sh1t.
I think we all have to be mindful of fake news, Malcolm. There is so much of it on the internet and, IMO, we have to try to stay calm and dismiss conspiracy theories and try our best to get through all of this until we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. We can all have bad days though, when our emotions are stretched. Nobody said it was going to be easy.
lets be clear--i'm not having a bad day--but i am open minded. 60+ years ago--i was a boy scout. i never forgot the scout master saying..one day china will rule the world. too much about this corvid nightmare just dont add up.
It is science and it does add up to me. No sense in looking for conspiracy theories, IMO. It is not going to be easy, buckle up
Old propaganda saying from WW2 " Careless talk costs lives" Scaremongering is neither useful or a good use of time.
Contagion just started on ITV2, very good movie, bit ill timed to be screening now but watch how fast the virus spreads, and where and how it starts
Yeah, I noticed that. I'm actually slightly annoyed, because I paid 9.99 to download it at the weekend!
