It is largely due to movement against the dollar, also when the markets like the FTSE drop the pound tends to rise, the reason being that a large number of FTSE companies make profits in dollars and when the dollar falls in value those profits drop in pound terms so the FTSE drops, vice versa when the dollar is strong those profits converted back to pounds are bigger so the FTSE rises. I have not done the numbers in detail but it does feel that there is some underlying GBP and FTSE strength at the minute over and above the normal currency fluctuations, the main reason I watch the indexes is because I have considerable ongoing costs in the Philippines where I am exposed to the exchange rate and at the same time I have UK pension investments which are intrinsically linked to the performance of the markets. Right now I am seeing gains in the FTSE that seem to stick outside of the currency fluctuations, I don't expect this to continue as I consider the markets to be rather overvalued right now, but it feels good on paper right now. I also get the feeling that currency movements against the Peso seem to be sticking and this seems to indicate some degree of Peso devaluation going on but I have not found anything that explicitly says this is happening, it just feels that way. edit: the best exchange rate I ever got on a trip over was 106, but for a long time I was regularly getting 90 to 100 peso to the pound, it was good then.
Going to some dizzy heights............... 1 GBP =71.5284PHP British Pound1 GBP = 71.5284 PHP ↔ Philippine Piso1 PHP = 0.0139805 GBP
I only care about tomorrow morning I send the next two months support for my kids tomorrow and at this rate I will be more than 90 pounds better off than the last time I sent to them.
The Peso is likely to devalue further and that is exactly what they need. They have 150 billion pounds worth of major infrastructure projects in the pipeline. As they borrow, the peso weakens. As it weakens, the materials they are importing get cheaper. The Philippine central bank now has a target of 49-52 PhP to a dollar. Previously it was 48-51. The pound is regaining lost ground, today because of improved deficit figures, and with the expectation of interest rate increases in the spring. My opinion is that the peso will continue to weaken (again, that may be beneficial) to the dollar. What is less certain is the trajectory of the pound. Personally, I'd like to see £1.45 to a dollar which would bring a 2.7% rise on current value. The peso will go to 53 PhP to a dollar (by my reasoning) a devaluation of about 4%. Therefore, by summer, a potential rate of 75 PhP to a pound. Today the peso improved on the dollar due to profit taking. The Philippines reported a record deficit in November, and the Americans may bring call center work back to the States. Also, there is a shortage of labour to carry out the infrastructure work and so wages will start to rise in the Philippines. That will bring inflationary pressures which may possibly be resolved by a higher interest rate (which would strengthen the peso). However as expats return home (which may happen, and which the Philippines may want to happen) to work on the Philippines building projects, there will be fewer remittances and that may also affect the peso, but then tax revenues will increase so that could boost the peso. The potential issue for the Philippines is inflation - that can be good if they inflate their way out of debt, but not so good for the ordinary Filipino. Oil prices are rising and that effect is worse if your currency is losing value on the dollar. But, if wages are rising, the Filipino will get a better standard of living. I think that, on the economy side, things are looking really good for the Philippines. I think the workforce will be more skilled in the next decade, and hopefully fewer people in poverty. It will be interesting to see if Filipinos start returning home to work. Exciting times, I think, and the pound buying more pesos is just one of the benefits.
PH economy grows 6.7% 0 BY MAYVELIN U. CARABALLO, TMT ON JANUARY 24, 2018TOP STORIES Twitter 3rd fastest in Asia despite 2017 slowdown; 7-8% trajectory seen for 2018 THE Philippine economy grew 6.7 percent in full-year 2017 to keep its rank among the fastest in Asia despite a slowdown forecast earlier by analysts polled by The Manila Times. Although slower than the 6.9 percent expansion recorded in 2016, the Philippine rate of economic growth last year puts it next only to China and Vietnam. “This stable performance brings our full-year growth in 2017 to 6.7 percent—a strong finish that keeps our position as one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia, after China’s 6.9 and Vietnam’s 6.8 percent,” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said. “To me, this is a good performance, given the fact that it is already normal for post-election years to witness a decline in economic growth,” he told reporters in a press briefing that followed the release of official government data on 2017 gross domestic product (GDP). Fact vs forecast The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported figures on Tuesday showing GDP rose 6.7 in 2017, compared with an increase of 6.9 percent in 2016. The full-year official figure settled within the government target range of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent for 2017. In The Manila Times poll published Monday, analysts’ estimates ranged from 6.6 percent to 6.8 percent, with five of the 10 respondents giving an exact 6.7 percent increase forecast that turned out to be accurate. In the fourth quarter of 2017 alone, GDP grew by 6.6 percent, according to PSA data, moderating from 7 percent in the third quarter but matching the expansion recorded in the final quarter of 2016. During the last quarter, growth in public spending reached 14.3 percent, up from the year-earlier rise of 4.5 percent. Strong demand, infra spending Domestic demand growth strengthened to 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter from 6.4 percent in the preceding quarter. Public construction spending increased by 25.1 percent, offsetting a 2.9 percent contraction in private construction. On the supply side, Pernia said the country recorded improvements in utilities and mining, while growth in services was supported by transport and communications, trade, and public administration, defense, and social security. Lastly, agriculture recorded 2.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter, having recovered from a 1.3 percent decline in the corresponding period last year. Hope for 7-8% upward trajectory Pernia said the government will move forward in 2018 with an even stronger determination to push for accelerated growth to a target range of 7 percent to 8 percent. “For 2016 and 2017, economic growth has been strong and steady. Our hope for 2018 and in the medium term is to shift the trajectory upward some more,” he said. “The Build, Build, Build program, of course, will continue its momentum in providing more opportunities to our country such as investments, job creation, connectivity, and dependable delivery of public services,” he added. To ensure that the country’s capacity for growth is sufficient, the government needs to make sure that the labor force has the requisite skills and competencies to meet rising demand, particularly for higher level skills, Pernia said. “This is why we need to open our education sector and ramp up our skills training programs toward greater learning opportunities for our current and future workforce. This will help in upgrading the technical know-how and the skills needed to counter the plateauing of the IT-BPM [information technology-business process management]sector’s development and in capacitating our workers for the demands of the Build, Build, Build program,” he stressed. Train’s push For the next quarter, the government expects domestic demand to pick up on the back of an improvement in household consumption following the recently approved tax reform package, which Pernia said, will result in a higher take-home pay for 99 percent of Filipino taxpayers. Household consumption is also seen benefiting from expanded employment opportunities from the Build, Build, Build program. Meanwhile, government consumption is seen remaining afloat, buoyed by the programmed increase in social spending, consistent with the implementation of the tax reform program. Government consumption is also set to expand, Pernia said, following higher salaries of government personnel in line with the third tranche of the Salary Standardization Law. Pernia added that the government looks forward to seeing much-needed reforms getting implemented, such as the Revised Foreign Investment Negative List, or the 11th RFINL. The list will help the country attract more investors by easing restrictions on foreign investments, especially in public utilities, telecommunications and higher level skills development, he said. “We are keen on attracting foreign direct investment flows that will make the Philippines more competitive. We must also make sure that we do not miss the second flow of FDIs [foreign direct investments]for the Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] region, having already missed its first wave in the 1980s,” he said. Pernia also pointed out a need to ensure that the benefits of the increase in take-home pay resulting from the tax reform, the Salary Standardization Law (SSL), and that economic growth will not be negated by inflationary pressures. “We hope to accelerate the cash assistance to the bottom 50 percent of families in order to stem the possible, though short-term, inflationary impact of the Train [Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion],” Pernia added. The NEDA chief stressed that the government should also be aggressive in pursuing reforms in the sector like the lifting of the quantitative restrictions on rice imports. “Certainly, the Philippine economy remains strong and there is still more room to grow. The government remains committed to making this growth inclusive,” he concluded. Space for monetary policy Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Nestor Espenilla Jr. said the strong GDP results for the fourth quarter and in 2017 overall confirm the underlying strength of the economy that rests on an increasingly balanced foundation. “This gives BSP ample policy space to stay focused on meeting its inflation target and pursuing ambitious financial sector reforms” he told reporters. Meanwhile, Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez 3rd said he expects the economy to expand faster now that the government’s programs to modernize public infrastructure and sustain the growth momentum have started falling into place. The additional revenue take from the Train, plus new money from the Official Development Assistance deals and the successful float of $2 billion-worth of 10-year US dollar-denominated bonds would ensure a steady revenue flow for the government’s aggressive spending on public infrastructure, which, in turn, would spell greater economic activity. Moreover, he said, sizable personal income tax cuts under the Train law would boost consumer spending and help spur greater economic activity. “These developments, which attest to President [Rodrigo] Duterte’s unwavering political resolve to effect real positive change and the corollary strong investor confidence in the domestic economy on his watch, would guarantee enough fiscal space to let Government continue pursuing an expansion policy leading to nonstop high—and inclusive—growth,” Dominguez said. “As I said last year, there will be a more exciting growth narrative for the Philippines this 2018, more so now that all of the government’s plans to keep the country among the world’s fastest-growing economies have started falling into place,” he added. http://www.manilatimes.net/ph-economy-grows-6-7/376090/
Getting better , 72 pesos to the pound yesterday in Cebu city . My best exchange rate so far . Long may it continue .
The U.K. trade deficit affected the pound on Friday. The pound had a little boost when the BoE indicated there would be more rate rises than expected, but it was a temporary up after a week of downs. The peso did well this week, partially because there were expectations that interest rates may have to rise. The Philippine economy will also be relieved to see oil prices falling this week.
Heading to 74 now and a few upcoming events may affect that. From March 2nd, the Philippine Bank will cut the reserve ratio to 19% from 20%. This will add pressure to the peso. This will also add inflationary pressures and it is expected that the Philippine Central Bank will raise interest rates on March 22nd. That could strengthen the Peso. There's also talk of more interest rate rises in the U.K. and that could strengthen the pound as well - markets but the rumours and sell the facts. I'm still sticking to my prediction of 75 to a pound in the summer - but wouldn't be surprised if you are starting to see 76-78.
73.7 is the current rate (the public will get something less) - the pound up 1% against the PhP today.
