News Analysis: Stocks tumble, local currencies weaken in Philippines and other Asian emerging economies MANILA, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) -- "Fears of a possible military action by Western powers led by the United States against Syria have triggered a rise in global oil prices which, in turn, resulted in the slump of stocks and the weakening of currencies in the Philippines and other Asian emerging economies. "Analysts said that the tension in the Middle East and a looming row in Washington over the U.S. debt ceiling, which could leave the country in political deadlock, have adversely affected the stocks and currencies of almost all Asian countries."" http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-08/29/c_132673838.htm
See also this week's Economist on India: http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/08/indias-economy This could happen to the Philippines and probably will - not because there is anything much wrong with the Philippines economy but just because global sentiment is turning that way...
If the rate settled back to the long term average of 80 odd peso to the pound I would be happy, I first visited when the rate was unnaturally high up at the high 90's but looking back at the ten or more year history of the peso back in 2003 it was closer to 84 ish and lower in the years before that. The real change over the years is not the exchange rate but the internal inflation rate, things are simply more expensive than they were. If I did not rent a place over there I would no longer be able to visit, at least not in the nice hotels as they have doubled to quadrupled in price in the last 9 years, also food is significantly more expensive than it was back then as well too, you would not notice as a visitor but if you live there or have to support kids there then you do really notice, I am talking about the big cities here not the provinces where things are probably still a lot cheaper.
There is a tendency for the Peso to become too strong, due to inwards remittances. This then collapses the Philippines economy, the peso weakens and the cycle starts again. This happened in particular during the later stages of the Ramos administration when, as now, the country was looking to be better run than usual. This graph is interesting but not up to date: http://mpgonz.blogspot.co.uk/2009/01/philippine-peso-from-1950-to-2009.html
I have a feeling, though, that the price of a barrel of oil is going to drag exchange rates all over the place until the Syrian thing dies down again. Look how sensitive the price is here (which will have a knock on affect on exchange rates globally): http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...24f498-1137-11e3-a2b3-5e107edf9897_story.html "In the meantime, crude oil prices are up on fears of widespread Middle East unrest should the US launch air strikes on Syria. In early trading on Wednesday, crude prices climbed to a two-year high of over $112 per barrel, settling just under $108 on Thursday. In London, Brent crude prices were up 1.5% on Wednesday at $116, closing Thursday at $114.34. If there is a US strike, we can expect this to spike again as the situation snowballs into a geopolitical disaster for the Middle East. The volatility of a pending strike on Syria is already palpable on the streets of Cairo, Egypt, and in Iraq, every move on Syria further entrenches the upswing in sectarian violence." http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...-and-Oil-Prices-What-is-Obamas-next-Move.html Why Syria Matters to Oil Prices and Your Money "The situation in Syria is distinctly different from previous conflicts and unrest in the Middle East. That's because Syria is a very small producer of crude. In fact, the country's exports have been heavily restricted by the U.S. and European Union sanctions, and its infrastructure has been crippled due to civil conflicts across the country. Today, Syria's oil output is less than 100,000 barrels a day, a steep drop from the 400,000-barrel output it offered two years ago before its civil war began. But Syria's importance to the global trade falls under two areas... First is its religious culture. Potential war would likely aggravate tensions in oil-producing nations with large Shiite populations. This includes nearby Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and even Nigeria thousands of miles away. Second, Syria's proximity to vital pipelines and sea routes used in the global crude trade is cause for concern." http://moneymorning.com/2013/08/30/how-syria-affects-oil-prices-today/
It is back below 70 just now due to the US Fed not tapering Quantitative Easing, but it is still persistently high compared to the last couple of years valuations.
They still charged me yesterday. The rate on WorldRemit is up to 69.16 not a huge leap but as I thought upwards.
If you have used them in the past, they will send you an email, with the code on, from time to time... Unfortunately, haven't used mine yet, as it semms that it ain't available, when we send dosh over...
