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Coronovirus in the Philippines

Discussion in 'Life in the Philippines' started by JohnAsh, Jul 10, 2020.

  1. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    Yeah 4963 new cases today on top of yesterday's report.

    I'm afraid that it looks like there is some seasonality to this and that the rainy season is not helping, it's hard to explain how the Phils kept a lid on it for so many months only for it to explode now, even with the extreme quarantine.

    That's just a personal theory I don't have any real evidence for saying it is seasonal but back at the beginning we were all expecting a disaster in the Philippines which never really materialised, that made me doubt the statistics but at the same time you just could not have hidden real exponential spread people would have been dropping all over the place if it had spread unchecked so the balance of probability is that the quarantine was working.

    It could start to get very bad very quickly now :(

    My kids are on their way home from Caloocan where they have been on holiday with family for the last 2 weeks, really hoping they don't being anything back to Nanay and Dhang.
    • Agree Agree x 1
  2. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    I think we will be looking back in January wishing that things had stayed that low here.
  3. Heathen
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    Heathen Active Member

    Iv no idea what the future holds, but this thing is not going away anytime soon, until there is a safe vaccination we can only hope and pray that we all stay safe.
  4. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    The only thing at this point in time which will determine our future is human behaviour, if it starts to get out of hand in the UK people might change their behaviour, but it only takes a small proportion of selfish self entitled individuals to ignore the reality around them to undermine the efforts of everyone else who are trying to prevent the spread of this thing.

    A vaccine that works and has lasting protection, yes I desperately hope that we get one but I am not confident that we will get one in any reasonable timescale, let's hope.
  5. JohnAsh
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    JohnAsh Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    The difference is that the Philippines is on the verge of losing control of it, possibly?
  6. Stupot10
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    Stupot10 Active Member

    The amount of deaths really depends on the strain, there are several strains to this virus, the UK had a deadly strain which is thought came from Italy, and was spread during the Cheltenham festival, from there it just spread throughout communities, my sister works on a Covid ward and she saw so many deaths from people that had attended or were close family members of people who attended the festival.
  7. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

  8. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    There is no real evidence to say that the UK or Italian infections are the result of a more deadly variant, however I fully agree that allowing the Cheltenham festival to go ahead was a disastrous decision, regards overall spread it is far more likely that returning holidaymakers brought infection back to their local communities, we had cases in March in Scotland which were clearly the result of returning tourists and we had the case of the identified man who brought the infection back from Singapore to France and then to the UK as he travelled home again in early March if I remember correctly.

    See this Oxford University Press article from the middle of May 2020 titled :
    No evidence for distinct types in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2

    https://academic.oup.com/ve/article/6/1/veaa034/5827470

    There is misinformation about strains out there, there is very little actual genomic divergence in this virus, this chart below which I have posted variants of before shows the genomic history of the virus based on global sampling and sequencing, the major clades which can be thought of as strains or phyla are numbered by GISAID the likes of 19A, 20A etc.

    These data points in this chart are all mutations, every virus mutates all the time the issue is where in the virus' RNA or DNA the mutations are occurring as many mutations are of no consequence in terms of its lethality.

    To get an idea of how mutations work by the time the virus has replicated in any one person it does not look the same as it did when they become infected, small changes will have occurred due to replication errors, but it is still the same virus

    None of that means that this virus is mutating quickly compared to any other virus, overall it appears to mutate about 1/3 the rate of Influenza B and from that Oxford OUP article it would look like other factors are more likely to explain the difference in mortality rates in different parts of the globe.


    https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
    upload_2020-8-1_12-52-52.png
  9. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

  10. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    Siquijor has just got its first case, spoke to a nurse working there yesterday.
    • Informative Informative x 1
  11. Jim
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    Jim Well-Known Member Trusted Member

    Got a bit of a fever and sore throat, Hope it's not the dreaded cov 19. Had/have the headache and dizziness for a long time, I think that's something else related to a middle ear problem.
  12. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    Hope all is OK mate, worrying times.
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  13. oss
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    oss Somewhere Staff Member

    Take care Jim, hope everything is ok, I had another scare this last week too, but I appear to be ok now.
    • Like Like x 1
  14. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

  15. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    Screenshot_20200803_134709.jpg
    • Informative Informative x 1
  16. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    Test centre in Manila :ninja:
    Screenshot_20200804_084253.jpg
  17. JohnAsh
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    JohnAsh Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

  18. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    5 day wait for the results.
  19. JohnAsh
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    JohnAsh Well-Known Member Lifetime Member

    • Informative Informative x 1
  20. Druk1
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    Druk1 Well-Known Member

    • Informative Informative x 1

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