Mike note that Boris was only saying the other day what I posted on the other thread on Jan 24 or 25, basically expect to lose your loved ones They are now planning for at least 400,00 deaths, 1% of about 40 million possible infections. edit: sorry about 40,000 deaths. edit again: sorry I was right the first time 400,000 deaths, four hundred thousand deaths. And it will be more than that because there is no damn way that the NHS can cope with these numbers.
Incredibly scary if those numbers will be correct, Jim. Where did you see or hear about that estimate?
This is simple Mike, they already said they expect at least 60% of the population to get this infection, the numbers out of Korea which are perhaps the most reliable due to the degree of testing and therefore sampling indicate that the death rate is a fraction below 1% 40 million is roughly 60% of the UK population, I'm not actually calculating this at the moment just gut feeling, 1% of 40 million infected is 400,000 dead, same as I have been saying from the beginning, if everyone in the UK got infected roughly 650,000 would die, this is based on the very good sampling numbers coming out of South Korea. Suppose that Italy is the correct model and not South Korea then we are truly f**ked as they have a death rate of 5% to 6 % currently you and me are probably gone in that model, the thing is Italy is not testing so they don't actually know the rate the South Koreans do know the rate because they have done at least 200,000 tests by now. edit: and we are not testing now either and that is government policy, so we don't have a fecking idea how bad it really is. edit again: I highlighted the word 'they' above, 'they' refers to already published predictions of our government.
So yes Boris has already been told this by his advisers which is why he played it the way he did the other day, he knows damn fine that he has to be upfront and honest about this.
Also the median age of death is 59, the median is the middle number on the line of all those people who are dying, that implies that that a lot of younger people are dying too, however the median does not tell you the number of people dying just the middle number of the ages of people who are dying. Under 50 the percentage death rate starts to drop a lot but it is still quite high it would be interesting to see some numbers for the under 50's but I suspect we won't see that data for years.
Don’t know if this has been said but it surely isn’t about age per se but about health condition of the individual in the first instance. (Though the two often go hand in glove but only to a certain degree). More the higher the risk where the individual has co-morbidities.
I actually work from home these days anyway. Working from home is advantageous under these circumstances, I guess.
We nearly booked a holiday to Tenerife. We delayed it to ensure we had enough in the piggy bank to pay for it. Glad we did delay it now.
Yes, it’s hard to dodge those individuals. Need quick reflexes. I checked through at the till in Tesco yesterday where the till operater was coughing into her elbow and had a runny nose, handling my merchandise. I did wonder if she ought to be in work and whether to disinfect the goods I bought..
If that happened in the Philippines she would have been put in an isolation ward, that's how serious it is over here.
This is an interesting Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/ericahauver/status/1238959119165534208?s=21
Yes but there have been an alarming number of deaths of younger people as well many of whom appear to have been healthy, take the young doctor that was the one to originally spot this and report it in China. Obesity has been mentioned as a risk factor in relation to this disease as well as diabetes and I for one am obese
Where does this information about a median age of 59 come from please. Also, it would not be correct unless you knew the ages of everyone who died. Eg, if 500 people aged 70 die, then, to get the median, you would need to include the number 70 five-hundred times in the row of ages.
I'll see if I can find it again, I think it was from a research team that were at the centre of the original outbreak in Wuhan.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 You were right to question I may have interpreted this incorrectly as the median age of death when it is the median age of reported cases. This gives a better idea of the distribution of deaths. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia....specific-fatality-ratio-estimated-using-stan/
Yes though I was on my own and no trolley but yes it is becoming a battle. No bog roll again and no sanitiser this morning.
Does the genetic make up of someone influence effectiveness of their immune system? So less genetically mixed populations could be more exposed or is it just exposure to mixed viruses?
