You think? You think everything is ok now, you think we are not going to see all this from the last year happen all over again. Who are the doom merchants? How about a bit of realism, at the beginning of all this I posted some numbers based on the death rates in South Korea where I thought the data looked reliable, those numbers were what you could expect in terms of death if we did nothing in the UK that number was about 600,000 dead. In the event we did something but basically not enough, right now we have 126,000 dead that's if they die quick enough to be counted and just under 150,000 dead with Covid 19 on the death certificate and likely there are more than that that went undiagnosed, that's a quarter of the possible likely deaths based on the early Infection Fatality Rates for countries that are generally healthier than ours. Plus we have god knows how many people who recovered seriously damaged by the effects of this virus, is this not all enough doom already, people on here were thinking that it would level off at about 10,000 dead a year ago, I think we need some caution because we sure as hell didn't have enough caution last year.
Yes I do think, Thanks Did I say everything is ok now? no I didnt, but no I dont think we will see the death figures again that we have seen in the last year I am optimistic that this will be the case. I have never bought in to this "died within 28 days of a positive covid test" at certain ages every day is a blessing and shouldnt come as a surprise The doom merchants, all those who pedal the negatives of this pandemic for example, those that put out the Astra Zeneca jab causes blood clots this then causes people to question if they want the jab thus making more people at risk and slowing down the jab process, when in reality according to a scientific guest on the radio there has been a total of 34 bloodclots in the millions of people in the UK that have been jabbed and according to the guest scientist AZ actually can reduce blood clots. But in truth the whole of the media will sell gloom instead of positivity. Then we have the doom merchants of our friends in the political world of the EU, Macron (I want everyone to listen and do as I say) changed his mind on Astra 3 times upto now first saying no good for over 65s, then no good at all, then alright for the over 65s but not for the under, then Belgium who agreed with Macron reverse their decision but saay its only alright for the age bracket 55-65 but now say its fine for everybody! Then you have the Italians who stop the vaccine going to Australia I think it was 2500 doses, but the I talians didnt want to use it, tghen you have Europe as a whole trying to stop America taking the vaccine albeit to stockpile as the Americans havent approved its use yet but at the time Europe didnt want it either, led by von der leyen who seemed initially more interested in beating the UK over the head than working with the UK. She seems to be more conciliatory now. Now we have some of our own MPs wanting a law change to allow peaceful protest(large crowds) WTF Then we have the general downbeat from the public of I might not get out till next year! Very little headline news that 25 million plus people in the UK have had their first vaccination! Very little on the number of deaths I am not saying throw caution to the wind, I am not saying I want to see a return to the last 12 months, but freedom over fear.
All it takes is one vaccine escape variant, it only took 8 or 9 months for one to emerge and then for an additional mutation allowing evasion of the immune system to independently evolve in several parts of the globe. Viruses are code in this case RNA code there are trillions upon trillions of combinations but only some are viable so convergent evolution is not unexpected, Dr Fauci made a valuable comment recently which is a saying in immunology circles, "No mutation without replication" what that means is that if you don't give it a host it can't get a chance to mutate. Maintaining strict caution longer than the population would like, or want to understand the need for, will ultimately protect that population, western countries helping poorer nations like the Philippines with vaccination programs will help everyone everywhere. I agree with you on vaccine nationalism and I will agree that there is a strong political element to the recent events in Europe mostly driven by anger over contracts, that kind of **** bothers me because none of this stuff is easy manufacturing these vaccines is a complex process and beating companies over the head over technical issues is unfair. I disagree with you when you say there is little headline news about the vaccine programme in the UK there is plenty of news about that and it is recognised and reported far and wide I hear news reports talking about the UK vaccine programme progress from many countries. Not getting out till 2022 or later would be worth it if as a result we don't repeat the last 12 months but to do that we need to absolutely suppress the spread of this thing, not just here but everywhere, "No mutation without replication", if tiny numbers are infected across the globe it won't get the chance to mutate, people don't get that, they don't understand, they want "we are all vaccinated so everything is ok now" and if we give in to that we likely will be back to square one 12 months from now, being cautious this coming Summer, Autumn and Winter is not fear it is the cost to purchase true freedom at some point in the future. Managing a follow up booster programme in the autumn is going to be hard but it is almost certainly going to be needed, that's what will bring freedom eventually. And don't forget SARS-CoV the original SARS mutated away from being as deadly to us plus it was far less transmissible to start with, while for this virus SARS-CoV-2 the mutations have been concentrated in the spike proteins, the part that lets it break into our cells, we can but hope that eventually it acquires some mutations in the payload that make it less deadly but there is not much pressure on it for that kind of mutation given that it causes such a protracted illness. Ultimately we will adapt to it, natural adaptation would have occurred anyway but the cost in human life would have been enormous, we are lucky to live in an age where we have an understanding of microbiology at a level that allows us to design enhancements for our immune system in record time, namely these vaccines, but the logistics of delivering those vaccines in an effective manner require the cooperation of society and if people demand normality too early they will be wasting the opportunity that understanding has given us.
We as a nation will need that booster programme. However, to ensure one remains immune to the ravages of these variants it is wise to become metabolically healthy. That way one doesn’t have to rely on vaccines. Add vaccines to the left hand queue heading in the cartoon below...
Sorry but this exactly the doom and gloom I am talking about, in one of your original posts you talked about "you expected this virus to kill you" well it hasn't! in further posts you talked about if memory serves me right the structure of the ventilation system in the place where you live and how it might allow contamination by the virus to happen that hasnt happened either but anyone of weak mind reading that post would run for the hills, I just see it as doom and gloom and scare mongering and being melodramatic. You talk about possibly being free in the 2022 for some that will be to late and what do we do get to 2022 and say ah we will be ok in 2023! Further you dont give enough credit to Joe Public (you probably include me in this area) for understanding the mutation of viruses! Most do and will take sensible precautions however there will alway be some for whatever reason that let us down. Optimism for our summer holiday still abounds as late August is a few months away. France is the yardstick on the Eu recovery map and if we look at France with an area 126% bigger than the UK with only 2.5 million people more have placed 16 regions under lockdown with the rest of the nation being under curfew 7pm to 6 am with the press reporting(See chart below) "The PM said the regional disparities meant that the government’s strategy of imposing localised restrictions rather than nationwide measures “remains relevant”. President Emmanuel Macron had so far resisted imposing a nationwide lockdown this year but his premier said the situation in Paris and elsewhere made the regionally-targeted measures affecting around a third of the country’s population unavoidable. Castex said, however, that the lockdown would be less strict than the one seen in the spring, and that schools will remain open. “These confinement measures will not be a repeat of those we imposed in March and last November,” he said. ‘Third wave’ “We are adopting a third way, a way that should allow braking (of the epidemic) without locking (people) up,”Ends Current view on travel from the UK On 11 March, the French government announced it was easing restrictions on travel from the UK. From 12 March, arrivals no longer need to justify an essential reason to enter France. This applies to all air, car, ferry and train passengers. All other measures, detailed below, remain in place for those travelling from the UK. The French government strongly advises limiting international travel to a minimum. Arrivals from the UK will need to complete a ‘sworn statement’ (déclaration sur l’honneur) form self-certifying they are not suffering from symptoms associated with coronavirus and have not been in contact with confirmed cases in the preceding fortnight. This can be found on the French government’s website. All travellers from the UK, including children aged 11 and above, will need to present a negative COVID-19 test result, carried out less than 72 hours before departure. Only PCR tests are accepted for passengers. For HGV or van drivers, lateral flow tests are accepted in place of a PCR test. The latest information for HGV or van drivers is available here. You should not use the NHS testing service to get a test in order to facilitate your travel to another country. You should arrange to take a private test. A list of private providers of coronavirus testing is available here. Passengers arriving in France from the UK will also be required to self-isolate for seven days on arrival, before taking another PCR test. Exit from this self-isolation period is subject to a negative test result. Please find more information on how to obtain a PCR test in France So hopefully as they get on top of the red areas over the coming months the requirements for Brits to travel will be less, we will be safer in regions 9,11 and 66 than in parts of the UK with the masses Optimistic yes Freedom not fear yes
There was an interesting discussion today on BBC Breakfast where the trade off was being cited between allowing Brits the freedom to go on holiday abroad because they will have been vaccinated on the one hand and on the other hand avoiding a foreign holiday and therefore avoiding bringing back home mutated variants from foreign countries for which we might not be vaccinated against. Again I have to labour the point. We can all gain immunity by taking the right food choices. But are we prepared to do that? Or do we want to bumble along dependent on the state to provide us with the next version of the jab?
I'll address a couple of your opening points, I have to work today. I still expect it will kill me, it hasn't yet because of the actions I have taken, there is also a slight caveat in the statement "I expect it to kill me" there is an implied "if I get infected" and yes if I get infected I expect it to kill me, I hope after two vaccinations that the main strain won't kill me but the South African or Brazilian variants yes I would expect them to kill me. (edit: and I think if you check back that most times I will have explicitly said "if I get infected"). Yes ventilation I solved that by maintaining a positive pressure into the loft, the Ventaxia extractor fans in the kitchen/living room and the toilet run 24 hours a day. Scare mongering? Melodrama? Well I see it as thinking through problems, John raised the point about ventilation to me quite some time ago whereupon I took action, just as I take exceptional care when I leave my front door. I was in Outpatients the other week to get a 24 hour ECG heart monitor fitted, I looked like this below, I was trying to explain in a slightly embarrassed fashion to the nurse the reasons why I looked like this, her response to me was "not nearly enough people take this seriously enough".
The Defense Secretary appears to be saying not to book foreign holidays this year. It looks like it is heading that way. I get the impression they aim to keep the borders tight to prevent other variants spreading into the U.K. This game isn’t over yet. All to play for in the 2nd half. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56474181
It was a BBC post I was referring to yesterday more the mood language than anything. (edit: this one Covid: Summer holidays abroad 'unlikely', warns government adviser - BBC News) And from your link quoted below (note linking to the BBC live stream is often pointless because the item you want to point to generally has moved on before anyone else gets to look). But this happened to be at the head of the BBC live page and pretty much aligns with my views.
Though in the summary : UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace says booking a holiday now would be "premature" and "potentially risky" I think this cropped up on the Andrew Marr show this morning too...
I expect the May 17th date will be moved, how far, will, as I said before, likely depend most on the situation in Europe.
I presume you are trying to make the comparison between a crowded British beach or holiday destination and an idyllic empty foreign destination. I don't see the relevance. A crowded British beach full of fully vaccinated people is going to be pretty safe, there will still be infected people but not so many that the virus is being given millions of opportunities to mutate. To get to the idyllic empty foreign destination you will have to pass through unvaccinated populations where the virus is spreading widely and is being given opportunities to mutate. And lets get real most people's foreign holidays are to locations that look a lot like the left picture but just happen to be in Europe.
I presume you are trying to make the comparison between a crowded British beach or holiday destination and an idyllic empty foreign destination. I don't see the relevance. A crowded British beach full of fully vaccinated people is going to be pretty safe, there will still be infected people but not so many that the virus is being given millions of opportunities to mutate. Depends on the virus strain How many are vaccinated would you know? , To get to the idyllic empty foreign destination you will have to pass through unvaccinated populations where the virus is spreading widely and is being given opportunities to mutate.Look at the France map you can get from north to south without going in the red And lets get real most people's foreign holidays are to locations that look a lot like the left picture but just happen to be in Europe Lets get real, random article linked below from 2019 and I am one of the 80%, if i wanted a beach holiday i would chuck some sand in the backyard and lie down .https://www.express.co.uk/travel/ar...news-new-travel-trends-UK-Australia-Caribbean
