General Election - June 8th

I agree, JC has a lot to answer for.

Which U-turn are you talking about. There's been so many.

Sensible U-turns in my view.

Never thought I'd be here defending a Tory Prime Minister

People will not see the small print in the Tory plans. The election is about Brexit, but the next 5 years will see the Tories at their nastiest. It's always their way when they have a huge mandate (which I expect them to get).

All of them?

The U-turn on the election for sure, makes sense to me to kick Labour while they are down gaining a few seats in the process thus giving her more power over the Brexit negotiations which I trust her with.

The NI U-turn was right in my view, many leaders have performed U-turns, its good to see sometimes that leaders listen and hold their hand up and admit what they have proposed is wrong.

Regarding Grammar schools I believe that if any child is bright enough and Grammar schools will help them excel then that's great, there are not many parents that would turn down the opportunity of their children attending a Grammar school.

Oh we're trading u-turns by political leaders, are we. How about those by the former leader of the party you say will have your vote. In no particular order we have:

• EU Referendum - campaigned for it prior to 2010 election after which he opposed it
• Tuition Fees - he pledged to cut them completely but then promptly agreed to them being tripled: a u-turn that has probably lost the party more members than anything else.
• In 2012, he voted for the Welfare Reform Act that introduced the so-called "bedroom tax" which he then repeatedly defended. In light of a report published two years later showing that few people have been able to downsize, he announced that the Lib Dems would work to scrap the contentious "bedroom tax"
  
• Pledged in 2011 to keep 50p rate of tax but agreed to a 5p reduction the following year.
• Fought the 2010 election pledging to increase public spending but then changed his mind upon entering the coalition and supported Tory cuts.

Of course you do! A French citizen needs a visa for his non-EEA spouse to join him in France just as a German needs a visa for his non-EEA spouse to join him in Germany. The EU's Freedom of Movement laws apply only to travelling to/living in/working in another EU country that is not your own.

Wild speculation for which there is no basis. Theresa May is more popular in the traditional Labour heartlands than she is in the Tory Shires because she's not a toff in the same mould as Cameron (or Blair) and doesn't rule with a chumocracy which has been a hallmark of British politics since 1997.

But I'm not expecting her to have a huge majority - even though I would like to seer that. In fact, I doubt her majority will be any larger than it is now. But she will continue to be the Prime Minister and she will have a direct mandate for her programme (rather than an inherited one)..

What follows in this post is just amateur crystal ball gazing.

I will start by saying where I stand; as an undergraduate I canvassed for Dick Taverne at Lincoln; I have been "politically active" since then, as a member of the Labour Party, then a founding member of the SDP and in due course a LibDem following the merger of the SDP and the Liberals. The common thread is that I am very strongly "pro-European Union" and mildly left-liberal. I do not believe in the italicised part of "from each according to their ability, to each according to their needs, by means of the common ownership of the means of production distribution and exchange", but as you can see I can still quote Clause Four of the old Labour Party Constitution.(I can also sing The Red Flag, unlike some younger Labour MPs!) I do believe in the part that is not in italics, as of course do all Christians and all right thinking people. I believe that the State does have a role in the economy and I favour the "mixed" economy.

I am perfectly comfortable with the idea of a United States of Europe, provided that it is democratic and liberal.

Education, health, infrastructure, the environment, food quality, public libraries and fundamental research are amongst the things I take to be parts of the job of the Government along with the the big items like defence, laura norder and social security, and I believe that the Government must also ensure that the nation are decently housed and given equal access to free public services including such things as libraries and a reasonable level of public transport.

My idea of a better society than we have in Britain now would look pretty Scandinavian or Japanese - good public services, free at the point of delivery, financed by relatively high and very strongly progressive taxation, with a small Gini coefficient, and a strong sense of civic duty. I grew up in the Middle East and East Africa and as an adult I have lived for several years in Hong Kong, the Philippines and China.

Now, you know where I stand and I have decades of doorstepping, driving elderly and infirm voters to the polls, telling, running committee rooms on election day, and so on.

I think...

1. That May has concluded that life is going to become harder for her as the negotiations start to go badly, as the economy starts to fail, and the Right wing of her party - John Major's "bastards" will make life increasingly unpleasant for her.

2. That she thinks that had better hit Labour now, whilst they are in the midst of the mess caused by the Momentum attempt to take over the Labour party, and not later when they may ave rebuilt.

3. That the Lib Dems are recovering and may be a threat to the Conservatives, particularly in the seats that the Lib Dems held before the last election. Richmond is the classic case.

4. That May regards Scotland as a lost cause, and is unconcerned about Northern Ireland.

5. Importantly, that May is very concerned about UKIP and is determined to stamp out UKIP, seeing it as an existential threat to the Conservative Party.

6. I do not think that UKIP will take seats from Labour. If UKIP could not take Stoke on Trent, UKIP cannot take any other Labour seat. UKIP cannot take Tory seats because the Tories are wearing UKIP's clothes.

7. This being so, UKIP will be crushed between the upper and the nether millstone and will cease to be a political force.

8. I cannot foresee what will happen in the Labour Party. Labour supporters are always very hostile to the LibDems - have been for ever - and this will make it difficult for Labour members to move to the welcoming embrace of the LibDems as Momentum tightens its grip. I may be wrong here, but I suspect that Labour cannot now throw off Momentum in the way that it threw off Militant Tendency under Kinnock.

9. The most likely outcome will be that the Tories will lose some seats to the Libdems but will take more seats from Labour.

10 May has called the election on Brexit but Labour won't fight on Brexit and neither will the SNP or the Norn Iron parties. The Tories may be vulnerable on the increase in inequality.

What happens if your kid isn't selected for Grammar school? He is immediately disadvantaged.

I honestly can't see anything other than a huge Tory win.

Timmers is right, there are no real viable options. The only thing that could sway the vote to be closer is if younger voters are more enthused to vote for a pro-EU party. But, the way our politics works, if the Lib Dems get 25% of the vote they won't break past 50 seats.

I think, though, there is some basis for my arguments about the disintegration of our rights. I merely have to point at the Snoopers Charter. By the way, I'm not saying this is a Tory only disease. I think that Labour propose similar things. Our parliament, in my opinion, works best with a strong opposition and a party with a small majority that is open to scrutiny (a swear word in Mother Theresa's parish).

Personally I don't look at it like that, there are many opportunities out there for the young, my son never went to grammar school but ended up going to university sponsored by his employer to gain a business degree.

I believe that in life you should grab any opportunities that come your way, including the opportunity to attend Grammar school.

The Lib Dems had to make a lot of tough choices in coalition, and I agree that many of those choices were the wrong ones. However, they did moderate Cameron and Osborne to some degree.

What I'm finding difficult to understand is how someone who wanted the UK to remain in the EU is now sat on the extreme anti-EU end of the spectrum. I actually hoped that May would become the Tory leader because I felt she would be more moderate and sensible. Talk of leaving with no deal being struck is as extreme as any I have heard.

Grammar schools are a complex issue. May has raised this as a part of her theft of UKIP's clothes, but it is not simple.

In large towns, with numerous comprehensive schools, we do see "selection by house price" - May is right about this. But we do also see children being crammed for the II+.

I went to a very good Grammar School, which survives, and my children went/go to a very good comprehensive school. It's not as good as my grammar school was, but its pretty good.

Nothing will ever happen to sort out British education and the British class structure unless the private sector in education is abolished.

I agree with a whole lot of that.

One seat that could be interesting is Douglas Carswell's (spelling may be wrong). He's standing as an independent in a UKIP seat (although I think many people vote for a "good" MP and he appears to be a good MP). UKIP could split his vote, and it could allow the Tories into that seat. If the UKIP vote is weak in that constituency, then there is little doubt that they will have been crushed nationwide. Good riddance.

I believe there is no such thing as soft, hard or extreme Brexit, there is only one Brexit which gives the electorate there wish or curbing immigration, this of course means leaving the single market, the UK really has "Hobson's Choice."

May really has her hands tied both by the Brexiteers and the EU, one Brexit one outcome.

I don't know Carswell but I do know his constituency. UKIP would have been better advised not to run a candidate there; as it is, I think we can mark this one as a Labour gain.

Rather a lot of "ifs" there. I think she's less concerned about the right wing as she is about those firmly on the left wing, the pro-Europeans including Dominic Grieve, Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke. Since taking office, she has embraced the right wing and brought it into the main stream.

I agree. A very sensible decision.

If/when the Lib Dems find a leader that's worthy of the title, they will undoubtedly pose a threat to the Tories. Until then they will make up the rump of the Opposition.

I disagree. Quiet diplomacy will win out in both cases. The SNP will likely lose seats this time to the Tories and Lib Dems.

Ha! No! Ukip is a spent force, except in the European Parliament where it can be relied on to keep things interesting and honest. I stand a better chance of being elected than Aron Banks!

Ukip won't be taking seats from anyone. Period.

It is already.

Labour is stuck with Militant Tendency Momentum and I predict that it will be reduced to 5 or 6 MPs after the 2022 election.

I hope you're right.

What increase in inequality? Theresa May is probably the most left-wing Conservative leader ever and is far more popular in the traditional Labour heartlands than she is in the well-heeled Tory Shires.

I'm with Bluebird on this. Aron Banks will steal votes from Carswell allowing the Tories to take the seat. In 2015, the Tories polled 16,205 whilst Labour only managed 6,364 (we won't talk about the Lib Dems

Spoiler: showing

of just 812 votes!

); Carswell was elected with 19,642 votes.