Missing Malaysia plane: 'Oil slick seen'

This three-dimensional "painting" depicts MH370 and appeared in a childrens' playground today in Makati City:

such is the power of the Internet that my friend Oyvind Snibsoer, who lives on Spitzbergen, sent me this link:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/16/opinion/palmer-malaysia-flight-370/

I like the optimistic "Hope Springs Eternal" lovely.

This is a cut and paste of a post from pprune; it seems to me to be an excellent summary of what is known, for sure, at this point:

First, the code/decode sheet

ATC - Air Traffic Control

ACARS - Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System

AHM Airpane Health Management - a Boeing maintenance system that takes real time data from the aircraft in flight

ELT - Emergency Location Transponder

VAMPI GIVAL and IGREX are waypoints

AF447 - the Air France Airbus A 330 which crashed into the Atlantic en route from South America to Europe.

quote:
What we know

- 1:06 - ACARS last transmission (thru VHF)
- 1:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 1:19 - Transponder shut off
- 1:21 - 'Alright, Good Night' at handover (supposedly by co-pilot)
(those previous two might be reversed, we have multiple sources seemingly confirming both possibilities. One happened at 1:19. one at 1:21 though)
- approx 1:15-1:30 - Vietnam sees plane turn around
(meaning turn was possibly before transponder was disconnected unless it was a military radar picking up the plane at that location both before and after it went dark. We don't know which told them it turned)
- 1:36 - ACARS misses scheduled transmission
- 1:30-1:45 - at minimum 11 eye witness reports from around and past the Kota Bharu, Malaysia/Thailand border areas (including one saying 'plane descending fast' like one of the later radar hits indicates)
- 2:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- between 1:30-2:40 - Military radar picks up an "unidentified" plane flying around (and possibly Civilian radar too, as officials said "corroborated by civilian radar" in one of their press conferences). Those include a couple radar hits we have been told about (and who knows how many that haven't been provided/leaked):
... VAMPI
... GIVAL
... IGREX at 2:40 (there might be another possible explanation for this one, as it is sometimes reported one of the above 2 which was at 2:15 is the last time it was picked up)
post 2:15/2:40 apparent absolute complete blackout of plane (except...)
- 3:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 4:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 5:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 6:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite)
- 7:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite) near 40 Degree line
- 8:11 - Boeing received attempted message to their AHM (thru Satellite) on 40 Degree line

A few other things we know(/might know) and notes

- ELT never activates

- absolutely no possible way there is wreckage at or near last ATC contact point. 14 countries with Ships, Planes and Satellite focusing on the small, unbelievably shallow area can not have missed a 777 for 8 days. Seriously, compare that to AF477 evidence being found on day 2. That is despite AF447 taking place in the middle of the Atlantic in roughly 15,500 Feet of water (with a sub at a depth of 12,800 feet eventually finding the black box), where MH370 was 120 miles off the coast of Kota Bharu (and a similar distance from Vietnam) in water with a mean depth of 150 feet. In fact submerged AF447 debris was spread for over at least 50 miles, or approximately 1/5th-1/6th the distance from land (Malaysia) to land (Vietnam) where MH370 would have been crashing. IT IS JUST NOT THERE!

- no other unexplained "unidentified" radar hits have been reported by any country in the area.

- ACARS never sends(/attempts to send) emergency transmissions indicating systems are being affected from a catastrophic event taking place (compare that to AF447 which sent 25 such messages over the roughly 3 minutes of catastrophic failure)

- the scheduled maintenance troubleshooting system that was refused because of Malaysia not having the AHM subscription is apparently, but not absolutely confirmed, a ACARS report

- it is not confirmed that Boeing received an overall total of 8 AHM attempts; we have been told of "6" such messages. That said, there were a scheduled 6 such messages after disappearing. So, either those are the 6 they are referring to, or the plane landed for 2-3 hours somewhere along the trail (Has any Government indicated they believe it might have landed and taken off prior to 8:11? If not, then the "6" would have to be assumed the 6 coming post last radar contact)

- possible contact from another plane just past 1:30. We do know multiple people were "frantically" attempting to get a hold of it for quite a while after the transponder went off
unquote.

A panoramic shot of the avionics compartment of a Boeing 777:

http://hawkeyemedia.com/panos/777_Avionics.asp

I think it's a fair bet that the US, Chinese and Malaysian governments know exactly where the plane is but are keeping tight-lipped. This could be because it has landed at some remote location and there are on-going negotiations with whoever is responsible. Or it suffered a catastrophic loss of its communications equipment, including its transponder and possibly radios as well, and was brought down by an Asian power because it was now an unidentified aircraft that failed to answer radio contact from ground controllers.

A question that a lot of Ppruners are asking is, why has the Malaysian government only released details of the final transmission made to Boeing (via Inmarsat) which placed the aircraft on the so-called 40 degree line? Releasing similar distance information for the other contacts made via Inmarsat would give an indication of the plane's likely track.

The Thais now say a plane did fly through their airspace at the time, heading west.

"Meanwhile, Thailand's air force said on Tuesday a re-examination of its radar data found what may have been the plane travelling west towards the Malacca Straits shortly after it lost contact with air traffic controllers.

This would be consistent with Malaysia's military radar, which spotted the plane over the Malacca Straits - the opposite direction from its planned flight path - early on 8 March."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26624546

Also, seemingly the plane had, later, been seen flying low over the Maldives....

"Though authorities are yet to confirm the sighting, the plane’s pilot, Captain Zaharie Shah, is believed to have practised landing at Male International Airport in the Maldives on a three-screen flight simulator at his home. The machine has been seized by police."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ers-claim-to-have-spotted-low-flying-jet.html

It is most unlikely that MH370 was over the Maldives at the time eye-witnesses there claim to have seen it as it would have been flying for about 8 hours (according to a 777 Captain on PPRuNe) and would have been out of fuel. The other aspect to this is that the Maldives are not sufficiently close to the 40 degree arc obtained from the "ping" time of the plane's last contact with the Inmarsat satellite positioned over the Indian Ocean.

The press pundits are guilty of mis-reporting known facts - such as that Captain Shah's flight simulator rig has three screens; it doesn't, it has five, two of which are touch screens and display the aircraft's Flight Management Computer display as well as other instrumentation. The three other screens merely provide the scenic view as seen out of the cockpit windscreen. Had they done their research and even looked at the photographs carefully, they'd have known this!

The press has also been speculating that the last reported transmission, by the First Officer, was unusual and may have been a coded warning: "Alright. Good night". If that were it, then it is not compliant with ICAO procedures but at the same time not unusual (according to air traffic control contributors to PPRuNe). That conversation might very well have gone like this:

ATC: Malaysia 370 contact Ho Chi Min Airways on xxx.x
MH350: Malaysia 370 switching to xxx.x copy that
ATC: Malaysia 370 have a safe flight and see you next time
MH370: Alright. Good night.

I clearly remember the BBC's wall-to-wall coverage of 9/11 and 7/7 but I have noticed that its - "its" being BBC World News - coverage of this incident to be rather downplayed. That maybe because - apart from the plane's engines being made by Rolls Royce - there's no British angle to the story and Malaysia is a small, second world country "out there, somewhere far away".

I agree and I also believe that this incident may well be a catalyst for changes in the aviation industry and they inevitably will affect ticket prices. For example, if it is proven that someone other than flight crew managed to gain access to the cockpit, then it would be quite reasonable for the pilots' unions to demand changes to the cockpit such that nobody can get in or out at all once the main doors are closed - El Al, the Israeli airline already implements this. Airlines will probably baulk at the idea of losing some valuable first class seats in order to accommodate a toilet, crew bunks and a small galley within the secure cockpit zone, but IALPA may demand it.

It is now day 12 of the incident and with each passing day, the Malaysian authorities have demonstrated to the world that it is just as bad at handling major incidents as the Filipino government was immediately post Yolanda. There are two press conferences a day in Kuala Lumpur and information given as known facts on one day are then contradicted a day or two later.

For example, during the first week they announced that MH370's cargo did include a quantity of lithium batteries but then, earlier this week, the story was changed to the 'fact' that the cargo consisted of just "5 or 6 tonnes of Mangosteens". There's a massive difference between the two, the former is known to be potentially hazardous, in that lithium batteries are known to be prone to self-combust, whilst the latter is generally not. There have also been conflicting accounts for the amount of fuel supplied to the plane.

Malaysia's press is quite rigidly controlled and prints what it is told to print by the government of the day; the country's press is much less free than the Philippines press. But both are not used to being in the spotlight and have the world's press descend on them demanding answers to their questions - which they're not getting. Neither country - nor any other in the region - employs media professionals to advise it on handling the press and TV, if the Malaysians had such a person - and they listened to him - they would not have family members of those onboard the plane attending press conferences. That is heartless of them, in my view, the very last thing a worried mother or son wants is to be bombarded by questions from journalists. Relatives need to be kept informed but well away from the world's press otherwise you get scenes as we witnessed at last evening's press conference.

A big part of Malaysia's problem is that she doesn't enjoy a close relationship with the US and also her neighbours are being somewhat less cooperative than they could be. Yesterday's search in the northern part of the southern sector - off Sumatra - was cancelled because the Indonesians refused to allow search and rescue flights in their airspace. Also the Thai military knew that MH370 turned left after the hand-over to the Vietnamese controllers but didn't tell the Malaysians; their excuse was "we weren't asked".

Part of this lack of cooperation might well be down to the fact that certain countries don't want it to be known that their air defences are lacking. As has been established, MH370's transponder was put into standby mode (it can't be switched-off from within the cockpit) and therefore wasn't transmitting. This means that the plane was not visible on secondary radar used by civilian air traffic controllers but it would have been visible to the primary radars used by the military. The Indians have already admitted their military radar on the Andaman and Nicobar islands was only switched-on on an as-needed basis. The Malaysians claim their military did see the plane on radar as an unidentified blip, but ignored it. Interestingly China stated very early on that MH370 did not enter its airspace but then, a day or so ago, announced that it would be searching its territory, particularly along the so-called "40 degree arc". So China's air defences may not have detected the plane either (or they did and shot it down with an anti-aircraft missile).

Good post.

Here is a rather plausible theory from pprune (it is no more than that)

MH370 A different point of view. Pulau Langkawi 13,000 runway.

A lot of speculation about MH370. Terrorism, hijack, meteors. I cannot believe the analysis on CNN - almost disturbing. I tend to look for a more simple explanation of this event.

Loaded 777 departs midnight from Kuala to Beijing. Hot night. Heavy aircraft. About an hour out across the gulf towards Vietnam the plane goes dark meaning the transponder goes off and secondary radar tracking goes off.

Two days later we hear of reports that Malaysian military radar (which is a primary radar meaning the plane is being tracked by reflection rather than by transponder interrogation response) has tracked the plane on a southwesterly course back across the Malay Peninsula into the straits of Malacca.

When I heard this I immediately brought up Google Earth and I searched for airports in proximity to the track towards southwest.

The left turn is the key here. This was a very experienced senior Captain with 18,000 hours. Maybe some of the younger pilots interviewed on CNN didn't pick up on this left turn. We old pilots were always drilled to always know the closest airport of safe harbor while in cruise. Airports behind us, airports abeam us and airports ahead of us. Always in our head. Always. Because if something happens you don't want to be thinking what are you going to do - you already know what you are going to do. Instinctively when I saw that left turn with a direct heading I knew he was heading for an airport. Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi a 13,000 foot strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lampur because he knew he had 8,000 foot ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.

Take a look on Google Earth at this airport. This pilot did all the right things. He was confronted by some major event onboard that made him make that immediate turn back to the closest safe airport.
For me the loss of transponders and communications makes perfect sense if a fire. There was most likely a fire or electrical fire. In the case of fire the first response if to pull all the main busses and restore circuits one by one until you have isolated the bad one.


If they pulled the busses the plane indeed would go silent. It was probably a serious event and they simply were occupied with controlling the plane and trying to fight the fire. Aviate, Navigate and lastly communicate. There are two types of fires. Electrical might not be as fast and furious and there might or might not be incapacitating smoke. However there is the possibility given the timeline that perhaps there was an overheat on one of the front landing gear tires and it blew on takeoff and started slowly burning. Yes this happens with underinflated tires. Remember heavy plane, hot night, sea level, long run takeoff. There was a well known accident in Nigeria of a DC8 that had a landing gear fire on takeoff. A tire fire once going would produce horrific incapacitating smoke. Yes, pilots have access to oxygen masks but this is a no no with fire. Most have access to a smoke hood with a filter but this will only last for a few minutes depending on the smoke level. (I used to carry one of my own in a flight bag and I still carry one in my briefcase today when I fly).

What I think happened is that they were overcome by smoke and the plane just continued on the heading probably on George (autopilot) until either fuel exhaustion or fire destroyed the control surfaces and it crashed. I said four days ago you will find it along that route - looking elsewhere was pointless.

This pilot, as I say, was a hero struggling with an impossible situation trying to get that plane to Langkawi. No doubt in my mind. That's the reason for the turn and direct route. A hijack would not have made that deliberate left turn with a direct heading for Langkawi. It would probably have weaved around a bit until the hijackers decided on where they were taking it.

Surprisingly none of the reporters , officials, other pilots interviewed have looked at this from the pilot's viewpoint. If something went wrong where would he go? Thanks to Google earth I spotted Langkawi in about 30 seconds, zoomed in and saw how long the runway was and I just instinctively knew this pilot knew this airport. He had probably flown there many times. I guess we will eventually find out when you help me spread this theory on the net and some reporters finally take a look on Google earth and put 2 and 2 together. Also a look at the age and number of cycles on those nose tires might give us a good clue too.

Fire in an aircraft demands one thing - you get the machine on the ground as soon as possible. There are two well remembered experiences in my memory. The AirCanada DC9 which landed I believe in Columbus Ohio in the eighties. That pilot delayed descent and bypassed several airports. He didn't instinctively know the closest airports. He got it on the ground eventually but lost 30 odd souls. In the 1998 crash of Swissair DC-10 off Nova Scotia was another example of heroic pilots. They were 15 minutes out of Halifax but the fire simply overcame them and they had to ditch in the ocean. Just ran out of time. That fire incidentally started when the aircraft was about an hour out of Kennedy. Guess what the transponders and communications were shut off as they pulled the busses.


Get on Google Earth and type in Pulau Langkawi and then look at it in relation to the radar track heading. 2+2=4 That for me is the simple explanation why it turned and headed in that direction.

Smart pilot. Just didn't have the time.

Yes I read that also, Andrew. However, MH370 had just flown over the closest airport capable of handling a 777 - Kuala Terengganu whose runway is 3,480 metres in length and is used to handling wide-body aircraft as Malaysian Airlines flies Hajj flights from there. The only advantages in making for Langkawi would be (a) to have more time to dump fuel and (b) it would be an easier approach.

There are at least two objections to this theory

Both true. Also, the nosewheel tyres have pressure gauges reading in the cockpit. But the gauge might fail, or the fire might be caused by something else besides under inflation. Those of us who have done fifi courses (quite a lot of us!) will know how dis-orienting thick smoke can be.

WOW. Catching the BBC news. Now they are saying more signals 8 hours into flight....previously unreleased info....the Aussies are looking for it in the southern hemisphere...

I need to catch that news again. Busy watching Man U, feeding the baby and writing work emails.

Its like where's Wally, does that mean the search area has just moved 4000 miles south?

LOL. The Aussies are looking in earnest off their west coast.....I need to check the news again.

( Dont take the LOL too literally )

Baby in bed. United are through. So I need to sit down and watch the news....

Yep. They mentioned it again. Now the search is focussing on the southern hemisphere down near Oz.

Elsewhere there has been suggestion that the Aussies have key info...