Scottish Referendum

Salmond wants his cake and eat it. He wants independence from Westminster and Whitehall but wants to keep the Bank of England's protection by means of currency union. That would mean, for example, that interest rates in the rest of the UK would have to take account of Scotland's economic situation and that tax-payers south of the border might have to bail-out failed Scottish banks. But there'd be no reciprocity. Salmond is adamant that an independent Scotland would keep the Pound in spite of all three major political parties making it very clear that such would not be the case. He has no "Plan B".

Salmond is relying too heavily on oil revenues to pay for everything. The problem is that its oil is a dwindling resource with the most productive fields being off Shetland which has stated it is against independence and were that to happen, Shetland would seek union with either Norway (Shetland is closer to Oslo than Edinburgh) or with the remainder of the UK. In any event all the exploration and production licences are held by the UK government and are as much the property of England (Wales and NI) as they are of Scotland.

Scotland receives a huge block grant from the Treasury every year which pays for all public services, the Scottish Parliament, its security and, of course, Salmond's not inconsiderable salary. It has been estimated, by brains greater than mine, that the set up costs for an independent Scotland will be £2.5 Billion - and not the £250 Million claimed by Salmond - which includes the establishment of the 100 embassies and consular offices outlined in the SNP prospectus. It will cost a further £2 Billion-ish to establish a new Scottish currency which includes the establishment of a Central Bank. So where's the money coming from?

Scotland's legal status is as a Country and if it votes to leave the UK, its membership of the EU would necessarily cease and it would have to enter negotiations with Brussels and submit its application. It is unlikely that it would be granted membership under the same terms that it currently enjoys as part of the UK, particularly in the realms of rebates and vetos. In the interim, the Scots would (at best) have to share the cost of policing the border with England and there'd have to be the same immigration controls on Scots as apply to Americans, Australians and Filipinos who wish to live and work south of the border.

The SNP's original and preferred position is that Scotland be an independent republic but the Nationalists realised that they'd never get that past the voters as the Queen and the Royal Family are much loved by the majority of Scots. Salmond therefore proposes that the Queen remains as Head of State. But has he asked her? As the Union was originally engineered by Queen Anne such that James VI of Scotland became James 1 of England, the present Queen may have to decline on constitutional grounds.

Scottish shipyards have built and maintained some of the finest warships ever to sail but it would be inconceivable that the MoD would contract with a non-UK yard for future orders and with the scrapping of Trident, Scotland loses out there too.

Salmond's entire strategy appears to be an emotional appeal to Scottish hearts since there is no good business case for independence - or at least, not one that he can make. He cynically grants voting rights in the forthcoming referendum to 16 year-olds living in Scotland, believing they can be persuaded by his emotive words, but disenfranchises Scots such as myself and Oss who live outside the country. Indeed since this really is a major issue that affects the whole UK, why are voters outside Scotland being denied their say?

I can tell you that over the years that oil has been a volatile resource. Scotland would be daft to depend on it. Darling is correct in his assertion. Salmond is wrong to give the referendum electorate the impression that oil will underpin the Scottish economy.

The Scottish Nationalists predicted that Scotland's North Sea revenues for the year 2012/2013 would be £8.5 Billion. In fact the total receipts for that year amounted to less than half of that amount at just £4 Billion (see here).

It seems that Salmond is using creatively optimistic figures to sell his bankrupt pipedream.

Exactly. Truth is, nobody really knows. It depends on many factors outwith the control of Scotland.

Both parties will be the losers if independence goes ahead, methinks.

I am part Scots.

I have no time at all for the silly romantic nationalism that Salmond has stirred up - all bitterness and resentment of the English - this is the politics of the Balkans.

If the outcome is a YES, then within a few years Scotland will be as bankrupt as it was in 1707 and England will have to bale out Scotland once more.

What you may not have noticed, however, is that the value of Sterling has gradually fallen over the last two weeks - since the second debate between Salmond and Darling. Over that period of time, the value of the Pound against the Peso has fallen by 5 Pesos and is currently 70. Japan's biggest bank, Nomura, is advising international investors to pull out of the UK as if Scotland votes 'yes' next week, the value of Sterling will plummet. Jordan Rochester, Namura’s foreign exchange strategist, is reported as saying that Sterling could fall by 15%. This would be worsened if Salmond decides to default on Scotland's share of the National Debt - which he threatens to do.

So this is all a huge stitch-up by Salmond and Westminster. Voters in England, Wales and Northern Ireland have absolutely no say over Scotland's bid for independence but we will pay the cost. Complacent Cameron never imagined that the 'Yes' campaign might actually rule the day and so made no provision for the rest of the UK to have a say. Both he and Miliband MUST resign their respective posts - or be prepared for votes of no confidence - should Scotland vote in favour of independence. Ironically, a 'yes' vote might actually delay a General Election by a year or so and it would also keep the two Eds out of Downing Street (Scotland provides 24 Labour MPs).

Now here's a fun fact for you. At the last election, the number of electors in the whole of Scotland voting SNP was just 70,000 more than those who voted Conservative.

It seems to be hotting up, up there. People are defacing the flags of those that are leaning in the opposite direction. Some are talking of leaving if the Yes vote goes through.

Yes, the issue has become truly divisive, with friends and families turning on each other. Whichever way the vote goers, it will be a long time before the wounds 'independence' has caused, heal. Another of Blair's blighted legacies to the nation - the Queen can not and does not make her views known on such issues but she did speak about the Union in her 1997 Silver Jubilee broadcast. A great pity Blair wasn't paying attention, for if he had, the Scottish Parliament might not have happened. And that, as we now know, led to all manner of evils, notably the rise of the SNP to replace Labour as Scotland's ruling party.

From the reports I've read, it seems to me that many, many of those in the 'Yes' camp are voting with their hearts and don't care about the rather important aspects such as currency, the EU, armed forces and the need for a border. They do seem to think that such things will happen, automagically - "Alex says we will keep the Pound, so it must be so". But what happens when, a few weeks after the successful 'Yes' vote, when Salmond has to tell his party supporters - and the rest of Scotland - that neither Parliament nor the Bank of England will permit currency union and therefore Scotland will have to find £4 Billion to float its own currency (the Groat, perhaps?). He might not get lynched for that but maybe when the Home Office requires Scots living and working in the rest of the UK to return to Scotland and apply for Visas, border posts are erected on all road and rail links. And if Salmond carries out his threat to walk away from Scotland's share of the National Debt, foreign investors will not wish to invest, so that and established companies moving south conspire to ensure that the Scottish economy goes down the toilet. Will he still smell of roses?

After the dancing in the streets there will be a sobering few thoughts to face.

But do they realise that if Scotland votes for independence, that's it. There's no trial period, no exchanges or refunds and given Salmond's credentials, no warranty either. They're stuck with it.

I was alluding to that. Indeed.

But what if they got on bended knee once it has all gone pear shaped?

I'm on a rig at the moment in the North sea with lots of Scottish folk of course and I get the general feeling that its going to be a victory for the yes voters. I think personally that some of the yes voters will get cold feet just before voting and vote no.

If they vote for independence then it wont be too long before they come cap in hand to Westminster.

Everything will look great through the bottom of a pint of celebration beer. I am not sure it will appear that way once the celebrating has died down.

How long are you up there for? Dont forget to check through passport control on the way back?

Then you will need a work permit on the way back up next time.