Traditional Britain Group

Well, I have "returned to the UK" twice; once at the urging of my first wife, who was English and had not "signed up", when we married, to the idea of life as an expatriate, and again some years later because my then wife and I wanted to bring up our children in Britain.

I'd like to make it abundantly clear that I don't recommend this way of going about things and that I am not any sort of a supporter of UKIP. Where I actually differ from Markham is that I don't think UKIP will flourish at the next election - not unless they get the media behind them. If they can detach the Torygraph, the Mail and the Sun from the Tories they have a chance - if not, not.

Not at all. You wrongly assume I support all UKIP's policies as stated in its 2010 Manifesto; I don't. But I did comment that some of its policies are actually rather sensible - as did our self-declared Lib-Dem supporting member. I do, however, support leaving the EU and have done so ever since Thatcher left power. The Maastricht Treaty - and lack of Referendum - was the last straw as far as I personally was concerned.

I never thought for a minute that you were / are a UKIP supporter. I was using you as an example of someone who has left the UK (possibly for the last time on each occasion?) but never actually succeeded in leaving....... I used you as a possible example of someone that thought they had left for good but eventually returned, in my quest to point out to those that are UKIP supporters not to think that canvassing for UKIP won't matter to them as many expats return eventually.

Well you can sure do a good impression of being a UKIP supporter.

Some of its policies are rather sensible. Some. Some are plain daft. And some they won't have put into print. They are really using a sprat to catch a mackerel though.

But they had to throw something into the manifesto pot to make them palatable to some of the electorate. Almost in a "well what can we bung in here to deflect from the fact that we are a bunch of closet racists, loonies and fruitcakes"? "I know, we will repeal the ban on smoking in pubs". "We shall ban wind farms " etc etc. Its all a big mix of randomly generated policies thrown in to make up the numbers.

As for their energy policy.....crazy. No wonder they have the reputation for being a set of clowns.

That remark is pretty obviously pointed at me and possibly one or two others whose views you reject. However, if you had placed me "on ignore" as you said you had, then you wouldn't even know I had posted!

I'd say no chance that the Torygraph will shift allegiances unless something apocalyptic happens in the Tory party - like Clegg becoming its new leader. There may well be a shift for the Sun - and the Murdoch empire generally - if Murdoch were to be convinced that there something in it for him. The Daily Wail is the wild card, unlikely to shift but you never know. It's all up to UKIP and its policy planners. If they can come up with a decent set of proposals, with withdrawal from the EU as its flagship, then editors and proprietors may well support it.

However I do wonder if newspapers are as important as opinion-shapers nowadays as they once were.

As someone old enough to have campaigned for a "yes" vote when we did have a referendum on membership of the EEC, I am reminded of the words of the Showa Emperor, broadcast to his people on August 15th 1945... "the situation has developed not necessarily to our advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against our interest."

Theres nothing wrong in filtering out a posters nonsense or misinformation. I do get the impression that you post more for effect than anything else at times, so I have become very guarded to that.

There's a certain member who posts here quite regularly that is obviously flogging land and property, one way or another. Whilst I listen to a lot of what he says, I have to be aware of his motives and the consequential slant on his post content. Other members are more honest and straight and have no hidden agendas that might skew their advice on post content.

Whilst the EU presents us with problems, it still presents us with benefits. I am not convinced that withdrawal is the answer.

Anybody reckon UKIP has a good energy strategy?

No, John, not at all. Its only policy I support 100% is that of leaving the EU.

On that we agree.

Agreed but that is not unique to UKIP. Both major parties have introduced and passed legislation that was never mentioned in their election Manifestos.

I know it's not fashionable to say so, but I do have a certain sympathy with that. In the small Welsh town that is (for now) my UK home, there were three pubs in its main square all of which enjoyed a thriving trade right up until the ban on smoking was introduced. Two of the three closed within a year and the one remaining pub only remains open because it has lodgings for tourists. I think that pattern is replicated in many areas, particularly rural ones. I do agree with the ban on smoking in restaurants, public buildings and the workplace though.

hmmm...

the leaders of UKIP may, as the Chinese put it, "have got too far ahead of the baggage train"...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/08/13/racist-van-poll_n_3748988.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

Would you care to elucidate on that? Other than trade with Europe - which would not be affected by virtue of other Treaties (eg EEA) - what does Europe have to offer us? Certainly not free movement of labour on equal terms - I mentioned France's and Spain's health provisions earlier. Added to that is Spain's highly illegal action of closely checking all documents on those crossing the border between Gibraltar and France's insistence that UK nationals present their Passports when crossing the Channel -- and their highly vocal objection when Britain imposed similar controls which it was then forced to drop. Surely not agriculture given the dumping of French milk on the UK market and the actions of French farmers who, not so long ago, set fire to lorryloads of live animal exports. And they accuse the British of being "bad Europeans"! Ha!

So, John, what are these benefits of which you speak?

Hmmm .... look at the top-left of this picture:



Notice the word "illegally"? Nothing racist about it at all and the fact that the majority of UKIP and Conservative party supporters agree with this proposal does not automatically brand them as being racist either.

The Home Office can not even keep tabs on pending or failed asylum-seekers and other non-EEAs who have either entered illegally or have overstayed their visas. It stand no chance at all at enforcing the provision that allows it to kick-out EU nationals who fail to find work -- it doesn't know who they are, or how many there are because no border checks were made.

The subject of EU Membership is a complex one. That is so both here and throughout Europe. So much so that opinion is split right downthe middle. Are we better to stay in or leave?

Who really knows the answer? And how would we know if the choice that was made was the correct one. So we rely on the experts to tell us but even they cannot agree. Having said that there are many positive arguments for staying in. There is not a clearcut answer to those questions but many arguments both for and against. Those arguments are well documented on the internet. I will leave it to you to look if you wish.

I am certainly averse to pulling out of the EU regardless. Can you come up with a balanced, for and against argument for Britain's decision on the EU that is in the best interests of the UK. If you start by stating that there are no benefits to staying in the EU then I am not listening. It is more a question of weighing up the pros and cons on each side aswell as the ones in the middle.

At least with the other parties we have a rough idea what they are all about. To a certain degree we know without looking at the manifesto what they are all about.

With UKIP they have an off the wall, wacky come eccentric ring about them and their policies so to try and read between the lines is well nigh impossible. The one thing you can count on is their stance on immigration though.....we know where we stand with that and not all of that is in the manifesto.

Another danger of those that ought to know better, encouraging UKIP or canvassing for them is that some who dont know better can be influenced by such people and before you know it there are forum members (not this one in particular) looking to get their wives a spouse visa saying "yeah, I am going to vote UKIP as there are too many foreigners here in the UK".

To be honest, I think this thread has gone as far as it can go in this particular direction, and I'm waiting for a "This correspondence is now closed - ED" from Kuya.

I say this because frankly, barring some sort of earthquake, UKIP will not be forming the next Government on their own, so consideration of their Manifesto as such is of limited value.

Looking at it a different way, who do UKIP take votes from?

The answer seems to be that in fact they take votes from all three parties:

A certain number of Labour votes, attracted by their anti-EU and possibly, mistakenly, their anti- immigration platform.

The whole of the "protest vote" element in the Lib Dem vote (you cannot protest vote for a party that is in government!)

A number of Conservative votes (not sure how many this will prove to be, absent support from the Tory papers)

It is therefore possible that UKIP may find themselves in coalition with the Tories after the next election, replacing the Lib Dems in that role.

This would actually present Nigel Farage with a huge problem, because his membership will bleed back to the Conservatives, and his party will self-destruct.

Not being a fool, he will seek to avoid this outcome unless very well compensated ("Lord Farage", and a few directorships, for a start...) and will prefer to be in opposition, ideally with a minority Conservative or ConDem government dependent on him for support, because sharing the Opposition benches with a Conservatve party that blames UKIP for their loss of power will not be a happy experience.

The Lib Dems will simply seek to stay in power if possible and will hawk their votes to either Conservatives or Labour.

My predictions:

Man Utd to win the premiership this season.

UKIP to fizzle away into oblivion.

I'm MUCH more interested in Philippines politics - I have been following the passage of the RH Law through Congress and the arguments before the Supreme Court and I would certainly vote for Senator Pia Caeyetano - at this moment I'm listening on headphones to her submission to Supreme Court Justice Lourdes de Castro.

Philippines politics offers a far more colourful picture - there are the Good (like Senator Caeyetano fighting for the rights of all and there are the massed forces of reaction - the Church, the "traditional politicians! ("trapos" - "rags" in Tagalog) the dynasties, the militaristic far right, etc...