Sorry Malcolm, I meant to reply earlier but it was hard to use the laptop in hospital, apparently this is one of the most important skills a surgeon can learn called a PR test, they learn how to do it on a mannequin and they are supposed to talk to the mannequin while they are performing the test. The thing that got me was how enthusiastic they all were to do it and I actually think that the full inspection as they moved around disrupted some of the internal abscess near my colon which is why it started draining properly again, the last one said everything was fine on the PR test but he was also looking to see if the flow through the fistula increased and it did.
I don't do business travel these days so they probably won't but if I tested positive I'd like to think that they would get themselves tested, it would not prove I caught it from one of them but given that I am far less social than any of them it would be an indication.
The value of 0.1% would be flu equivalent. To arrive a month earlier would require the October - Nov 2019 and the computational biology still does not support that as all samples so far still converge on one strain appearing in late November 2019, if earlier strains were circulating in this country they would be pushing back that date and that does not appear to be happening. She's rather vague on resistance essentially invoking an unknown resistance mechanism and by assuming there is one makes it almost impossible to ever agree an outcome on this thing. I agree on demographics but is their model taking into account the demographic when looking at other countries. The take away from her ideas are that you now have to introduce a second kind of infection fatality rate (IFR) which would be a susceptibility infection rate (SIFR) in other words she could end up justifying the model she is proposing basically on a variable that can't be calculated but can only be guessed, if you invoke the notion that many never generated an antibody response (or at least the conventional antibody response) then you have a situation where the real IFR varies between the limits you can calculate. So if you do serological tests of a large sample of London's population and find 20% antibody positive but then invoke some unknown immune mechanism to assume that 60% more are somehow immune then basically all you can do to prove who is right is to undo the lockdown and wait to see how bad it gets, but if it comes back big time she's wrong and that would be a gamble that is not currently supported by observation. The thing you posted earlier John about the potential spike in non attributable recorded deaths in December should have continued through December and January and February given how infectious this thing clearly is and we don't see that so why did it not take off much earlier, there should be a substantial statistically significant spike in deaths in those months and the ONS should see that compared to previous years. At the end of the day we will see what happens in the USA as they are involved in exactly this experiment now, and we will see what happens here and elsewhere in Europe as lockdown eases.
Yes for just now and on antibiotics until the end of the week, I think they are going to arrange a new MRI scan this week but I don't know when. I only really posted about this in this thread as it is something that anyone trying to isolate might be interested in when they had to break that isolation and I was going to make a few points as follows. In general the protocol at the urgent walk in centre was excellent I felt safe enough and I think the doctor I saw would have been well protected from me if I had been presenting with covid-19, given the fever as far as they are concerned I could have been. I was seen quickly at A&E within about 15 minutes of arriving, there were only 4 other people waiting in the A&E, they took me in immediately after temp, BP and pulse and oxygen checks and the usual interview, while almost everyone was masked a few were not, I did note that hand hygiene was not consistent when watching nurses and doctors wash and I'm not even sure that their use of 70% alcohol was correct as their cleaning looked rushed. All the doctors and nurses were very good but I had to go through the whole story over and over again particularly as it is a long story going back 20 years. Being on the ward was ok I wore PPE most of the time although I was the only patient who did so and I wore it knowing it would not protect me from the other patients but the ward was large and quite well ventilated, I would only take it off at night when sleeping. Not all nurses and nursing assistants and other staff wore masks but the majority did, cleaning of the floor and so on could have been better particularly in the toilet, some equipment didn't work first time like the call button to get help and I only found that out when the drip pump threw an error a 3am and beeped loudly for about 10 minutes before luckily a nurse came into the ward, by the time she got my antibiotics and fluids flowing again I had forgotten to tell her and the damn thing went off again an hour later, that time I did tell her and she got me a new one that worked. All in all I was glad to get out but now have to keep an eye out for covid-19 symptoms for the next couple of weeks, but overall I was really well treated. I should also make the point that I calibrated my in ear thermometer against the readings they were getting from theirs and mine was generally reading low by anything up to 1 degree, so I was really lucky that I got sent to A&E as I was really close to sepsis (septicaemia or blood poisoning) if I had allowed my fear of covid-19 to keep me at home I might have died.
Hope every thing turns out good for you Jim, speedy recovery. Better you are in the UK and Not in Manila.
A spell in hospital is always quite interesting. I was in for about a week in 2005 with an inflamed pancreas. This was the precursor to the removal of my gall bladder. I don’t recall many patients if any tapping away on their laptops and the tablet hadn’t arrived on the scene by then. I do recall being in a large ward with one or two patients constantly calling out through the night meaning it wasn’t easy to sleep I do recall losing a few pounds while there.
Stuff like this keeps surfacing: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-...e-date-back-to-November-QjPChuck9y/index.html
Thanks Jim. I've had this before while in Manila, I've treated this in a bit of a cavalier fashion in the past and just suffered it until it burst, if it blocked up for long enough to create an abscess, luckily it's never been really bad when I've been over there but it was always declared on my travel insurance just in case. With hindsight, I've probably been putting myself at more risk than I thought over all these years.
I don't remember there being TV's in hospital although I never used it this time, saying that the last time I was an inpatient was October 1978
Ok I'll concede now, I changed from time to divergence and got the popup view below which widens the confidence range to 6th Oct 2019 to 21 Dec 2019. So it is possible as the original clade has that margin on the date of the zoonotic jump and yes it would potentially mean that what you and your family and Maharg and family and me had in January was potentially SARS-Cov-2. I have a feeling that the Chinese article might be trying to shift the blame a bit but they can't get away from the fact that original clade is definitely from China. I might spend the £69 to find out now although it is not a home result, you have to send the blood sample back to the lab.
The lady I mentioned earlier said she is going to have a scan to check for scarring, so convinced she is that she had it back in November. She says she was at her husbands school reunion where there were 100 people and thinks she got it then.
@bigmac earlier you asked how we are getting on with the air fryer, our latest ( and I know you have told me your wife likes Aubergines) is Aubergine cookies.
Yes and breadcrumbs Coat Aubergine in egg white on with the seeds and crumbs then into fryer..... then enjoy
i showed your post to my wife--the first thing she said was--coat it in egg white ! i did cook a loin of pork in mine--worked perfectly.
