Scottish Independence referendum part 2

The wee one Nicola Sturgeon announced today that she will ask for permission to hold a second independence referendum, the first one only being a couple of years back.

I was wondering why the SNP couldn't wait until they had a rough idea where Brexit was heading.

A little blinkered I feel

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181

Here she is, making the announcement:

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“It is clear that our voice and our interests can be ignored at any time and at any issue. This is where we stand today… I cannot pretend to the Scottish people that a compromise agreement looks remotely likely… I will now take the steps necessary to make sure that Scotland will have a choice at the end of this process. A choice of whether to follow the UK to a hard Brexit or to become an independent country… The Scottish government’s mandate for offering this choice is beyond doubt.”

So next week she will seek a Section 30 order from the Government permitting her to hold a Referendum on a date between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. Be that as it may, here's the reaction:

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“Only a little over two years ago people in Scotland voted decisively to remain part of our United Kingdom in a referendum which the Scottish Government defined as a ‘once in a generation’ vote. The evidence clearly shows that a majority of people in Scotland do not want a second independence referendum. Another referendum would be divisive and cause huge economic uncertainty at the worst possible time.”

This is simply a ploy by Sturgeon to hide her government's abysmal record in dealing with devolved public services like health and education and her shyness in raising taxes, preferring to blame Westminster for its cash shortfall. Scotland could barely afford independence two years ago when the price of oil was over $100 a barrel, how on earth does the country expect to pay its bills when Brent Crude is now around a third of that price; and no Barnet Formula, no currency of its own and will not be a member of the EU in two years' time. Yep, go for independence: the Italians can finish building that wall they started two thousand years ago.

Both the EU and NATO have warned Scotland today that the country would cease to be a member of both organisations should it declare independence from the United Kingdom. Not that Sturgeon is listening ....

Like you, I think this is an exercise to deflect attention from Scotland's problems. If Sturgeon is unable to confirm that the EU will accept them as a new member and if Sturgeon has no concrete plans for a form of currency - then the result will be the same as last time.

The only thing that may sway it is if the vote is given to 16 year olds again.

This is the problem, all the uncertainties surrounding the independence referendum of 2014 are still there, throw Brexit it on top of that and the Scottish people would be voting blind.

If Scotland had some concrete assurances regarding its membership of the EU and which currency it will use then maybe the people of Scotland will vote to go it alone.

I hope the referendum is put on hold until Brexit is sorted out, Brexit and Scoxit going on at the same time is too much to handle.

I personally think 16 year olds are too young to vote but that's another argument.

I really don't know why Sturgeon is claiming that Scotland can and will remain within the EU post-Brexit when she has been told by both Tusk and Juncker as well as by the Prime Minister of Spain that Scotland joined the EU as part of the UK and not independently and so can not remain when the UK as a whole leaves. I see that Scotland's chances of joining the EU as an independent nation are almost non-existent: not only will Spain (and possibly France) veto the application but Scotland will not meet the entry qualifications then and possibly for ten years or so. Sturgeon is not being honest, like Corbyn, she leads a party of protest and not of government and, in her case, the record speaks for itself.

It may not simply be Scotland that bids for independence. Sinn Fein is within a whisker of becoming the dominant political force in Northern Ireland and a similar referendum there may well result in a united Ireland.

Alternative facts have emerged concerning a Scottish referendum from one Jeremy Corbyn: three days ago, in an interview with a reporter from the Press Association, our Jezza said "Well if a referendum is held, then it’s absolutely fine, it should be held, I don’t think it’s Westminster or the Labour Party to prevent people holding referenda."

And yet he told Nick Robinson on this morning's Today programme "no, we’re not in favour of a referendum". Nick Robinson challenged Corbyn regarding what he told the Press Association to which Corbyn replied "No, there was a bit of mischievous misreporting going on there."

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Press Association has not taken kindly to its integrity being questioned. Its editor-in-chief Peter Clifton said this afternoon "The only mischievous thing about this episode is the suggestion that PA has done anything beyond what it always does – accurately report what politicians say to us in an entirely impartial way."

After watching the news the general consensus is that the referendum will have to wait until after Brexit which will undoubtedly upset Sturgeon

This is exactly what Sturgeon hoped to avoid! She definitely wants the referendum before the exact Brexit terms are known and have been ratified by the EU Commission and Parliament. This would enable her to portray the as-yet unknown outcome as pessimistically as is necessary to encourage a vote for independence. However most Scots are not stupid, they will know that Scottish independence will adversely affect their trade with the rest of the UK: in 2014, Scotland's exports totalled £76 billion, of which £48.5 billion (64%) was with constituent nations of the United Kingdom, £11.6 billion with the rest of the EU, and £15.2 billion with other parts of the world.

What has become apparent to me is the SNPs passion the leave the UK, makes me wonder if their enthusiasm isn't clouding their vision of a independent Scotland.

I think it was a bad mistake to announce another referendum today, I think she may rue the fact especially if May does defer the referendum until after Brexit.

I hope the Scots vote to remain in the UK and the argument can be finally put to bed, I was working on the North Sea rigs at the time of the last referendum and passions were running high to say the least between the two different sides on board. In a lot of ways it was worst than the arguments over Brexit.

I do have a feeling that a referendum is the last thing a lot of people want in Scotland.

i think its only fair that if there is another referendum--then the rest of the UK should have the vote as well. it would be interesting to see how many votes to leave would come from south of hadrians wall.

Well its their decision to make, personally I would not like a vote, there are more uncertainties than Brexit, serious ones as the Scots will be in the dark about many unresolved issues.

I want them to stay, we will have to change the Union Jack if they leave and I'm rather fond of it the way it is

i can just imagine if there was another referendum--and it went the way of Scottish independence.....but with an interim period of time in which the people could choose where to live.

i predict a riot.

and English house prices would skyrocket.

If the vote is restricted to Scots, then I think a slight majority would vote to remain. But there, I believe, a lot of people living in England and Wales who are aggrieved at the amount of their money being squandered north of the border; Scotland does particularly well out of their settlement under the Barnet Formula (which even Joel Barnet, its architect, believes is unfair and outdated) and the Scottish Parliament does have tax-raising powers - powers it refuses to exercise. Far better to blame the English for all Scotland's monetary woes than for Sturgeon and her SNP gang to be deeply unpopular for imposing extra taxes. As Independence would benefit the English - who'd no longer be propping-up the profligate SNP administration - the added English vote might end the Union.

So who is Sturgeon trying to convince with her repeated insistence that Scotland will not be 'dragged out of the EU by a hard Brexit government'? Herself?

I am more concerned about the prospect of having a land border with Scotland. Nightmare.

Why did most people vote for Brexit ?

Bit half-hearted, if you ask me, not a measure likely to generate much revenue. But wait, they're not hurting their core supporters by not increasing the allowance as those who will be affected are very likely to vote Tory.

I listened to her speech and I'm certain she said she would wait until it was known what type of Brexit it was. She just stated when she thought that would be likely and therefore when ref2 would be.

To be fair, the SNP said there would be no referendum unless something material changed and quoted the UK leaving the EU as a typical example. No one questioned that logic at the time. I personally don't think she would win today but if we go for a hard Brexit then Scotland having the opportunity to say join the EFTA /EEA would in my opinion swing a great number of votes.

A significant number of Leave voters were hoping for EFTA/EEA membership for the UK if anecdotal vox pops during the referendum mean anything.