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Discussion in 'Health and Fitness' started by aposhark, Mar 4, 2020.
Filipina Caregiver gets vaccinated:
The Trafford Centre
Grauniad on vitamin d and Covid
If true effectiveness of vaccine is NOT 90% and actually closer to 29% (as suggested here in @bmj_latest) we will get an indication in the next few months from patients presenting with symptomatic COVID19 a month after getting it.
Extracted from the BMJ
Peter Doshi: Pfizer and Moderna’s “95% effective” vaccines—we need more details and the raw data - The BMJ
Covid-19 vaccines: to delay or not to delay second doses - The BMJ
That’s the one.
Depressing, and all perfectly rational points, I suppose we can only wait a couple of months for real data to start coming in from whatever follow up they are doing on the vaccination programme.
Starting to think that the Oxford vaccine might be the best option, although that opinion piece slates them too, and that the best time to get it might actually be March after all.
edit: this also further reinforces the point that the decision to delay second dose vaccinations against the trial protocol in absolutely blind madness.
That's why I had posted the other link, which was in the sidebar of the first link.
Neither Boris or Matt has mentioned this.
I guess they are thinking that some boost to immunity is better than none
19% to 29% effectiveness for a vaccine will barely make a dent in the dire mess that hospitals find themselves in.
If this turns out to really be correct then the public will lose all confidence because these lockdowns will have to continue and it will be groundhog day for years unless they have a total national shutdown for a couple of months.
And the damage done to trust in Science will be immeasurable.
my wife had the oxford vaccine on saturday--together with most staff and residents at the care home--and as there were a couple of shots spare..i was done as well. ( otherwise they would be wasted ). Ive had no side effects--my wife and some staff had aching joints and headaches to a lesser or greater extent.
i just wonder now were its all going. The I o Wight has gone from lowest category up till xmas--to the highest category since. It seems the whole country is in a bigger mess now than last spring--with the worst weather still to come.
Oss--do you think the virus will continue to mutate ?
on spell checking the above i had mis-spelt saturday---i had omitted the turd.
Malcolm I should have been making the point about One Infection = One experiment for the virus for a lot longer, I knew about this back in January last year but it should have been my immediate response to anyone suggesting that we just let it burn through the healthy population and only try to protect the vulnerable, because every infection, every single person that gets it is an opportunity for the virus to mutate, the vast majority of mutations are bad or harmless for the virus in other words they result in the virus either dying out or don't really make any difference to it, but every so often a change will make the virus more fit, in other words the mutation will help it spread.
The virus does not intend to kill, its only goal is to replicate and to keep replicating, if it mutates to be even more deadly, say it killed people quicker that is not in the virus's interest because it will have less chance to spread and will die out quicker.
The mutation that makes Covid-19 so dangerous to humans is the one that allows it to hide from the human immune system for nearly a week but during that time activated virus particles are being released from the infected person, that is a hell of an evolutionary advantage, you don't look or feel sick but you are infecting people all around you.
If 100,000 people get infected but you lock down like China and prevent it spreading then you only gave the virus 100,000 chances to change and spread, but if you are America and everybody is frickin self entitled, it's my body, it's my life arseholes then you end up with 24 million infected individuals and you just gave the virus 24 million chances to mutate and of course in reality the numbers are much higher than that because not everyone gets tested.
It's a virus it will never stop mutating.
Good news on your vaccination and even better news that it is the Oxford one that you got.
edit: just a note, mutations in viruses happen inside the cells of the host animal, this is not something that happens to a virus that has landed on a surface or food or that is wafted around in aerosols, a mutation happens inside a human or animal host at the point where the virus is making copies of itself, a mutation is an imperfect copy almost like the previous version but a little bit different.
The Chinese Sinovac vaccine is turning out to be less effective than advertised.
Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective - BBC News
I think we might get stories like this coming through to soften us up for the inevitable disappointment if the Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford vaccines turn out problematic as well.
Basically even if you have been vaccinated don't stop being incredibly careful for the rest of the year until new case numbers have been pushed down to almost nothing either by lockdown or by natural immunity or by the vaccination programme.
Although 50.4% is not bad compared to how potentially poor the Pfizer one might turn out to be.
Large scale trials of Interferon Beta treatment are starting in England.
Early results in the middle of last year this reduced ICU cases by 79% and got people out of hospital quicker.
This was last year Coronavirus: Protein treatment trial 'a breakthrough' - BBC News
The news just said this new large trial will not be complete until June so it is not going to be a magic bullet.
Lessons from Japan:
An old university batch mate has just had the Pfizer jab. He is 67 but don’t think he has underlaying health conditions. N’orn Iron though.
“My covid symptoms started 26th November 2019! Through most of December. My cough lingered much longer”
1st +ve = May 19 - 4.14 (Abbot)
2nd +ve = Oct 19 - 11.21 (Roche)
3rd +ve = Jan 20 - 7.38 (Roche)
I know you posted this before but you and I and many others had similar symptoms in January 2020, I had a cough that lingered for about 8 weeks, my sister in Scotland had the same.
Regards those dates is 19 the year or the day of the month, if it is year it is impossible as the tests didn't exist, if it is the day of the month she could have been asymptomatic at any time in Feb, March or April.
If it is day of the month it would suggest long term immunity in this individual, either that or multiple asymptomatic exposures to the virus.
If it is long term immunity, that's brilliant.
Regards the notion that SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in Europe much earlier than late Jan 2020 is still extremely hard to support simply on the basis of basic epidemiology we can see what it would have done in three months unchecked, but also still on the grounds of Genomic Epidemiology viral ancestry analysis which still points to a zoonotic species jump in Nov 2019.